STL beat MIN 4–3. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Robert Thomas scored at 19:37 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 49% to 96%. Cam Talbot allowed 3.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:47 | MIN | Jonas Brodin from Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 0:32 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek from Jordan Greenway | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 10:27 | STL | Mike HoffmanPP from Vladimir Tarasenko, David Perron | 1–2 | 12% → 26% |
| P2 11:29 | MIN | Marcus Foligno from Mathew Dumba | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P3 3:49 | STL | Mike HoffmanPP from David Perron, Torey Krug | 2–3 | 7% → 21% |
| P3 7:41 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Robert Thomas | 3–3 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 19:37 | STL | Robert Thomas from Mike Hoffman, Jordan Kyrou | 4–3 | 49% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Hoffman C | 13:18 | 2 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.21 | +0.76 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Robert Thomas C | 12:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.12 | +0.39 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 15:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.16 | +0.26 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Torey Krug D | 21:43 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 19:52 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 14:05 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 13:44 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 15:45 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:35 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 29:19 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 15:47 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 15:47 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 11:52 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:45 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 10:33 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 15:05 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 22:29 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 11:27 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:00 | −0.95 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Foligno L | 16:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.07 | +0.44 | +0.17 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Jordan Greenway L | 16:21 | 2 | +0.33 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.28 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 21:21 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.04 | +0.42 | −0.14 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 15:10 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.06 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 24:37 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 23:06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 14:48 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 13:17 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 11:01 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 15:04 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:43 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 16:50 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 17:21 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 14:04 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 12:26 | −0.18 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 13:09 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 21:54 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.26 | −0.04 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 14:22 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 59:37 | −3.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.