FLA beat CAR 4–3 in overtime. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Aleksander Barkov scored at 0:24 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Chris Driedger allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:25 |  CAR | Dougie Hamilton from Andrei Svechnikov, Steven Lorentz | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 19:35 | FLA | MacKenzie Weegar from Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Bennett | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 1:37 | CAR | Dougie HamiltonPP from Sebastian Aho, Vincent Trocheck | 2–1 | 48% → 66% |
| P3 3:04 | CAR | Brett Pesce from Jake Gardiner, Sebastian Aho | 3–1 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 4:48 | FLA | Gustav Forsling from Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar | 3–2 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 6:20 | FLA | Alexander WennbergSH from MacKenzie Weegar, Anthony Duclair | 3–3 | 22% → 51% |
| OT 0:24 | FLA | Aleksander Barkov from Chris Driedger, MacKenzie Weegar | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Pesce D | 23:29 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.15 | +0.46 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 23:47 | 2 | +0.20 | −0.68 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cedric Paquette C | 15:37 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 16:40 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 17:31 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Shore C | 4:02 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Ryan D | 10:33 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 15:44 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max McCormick L | 3:42 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 23:56 | −0.07 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 19:24 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:27 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 20:44 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.42 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.08 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 12:32 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 7:30 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:17 | 2 | −0.42 | −0.72 | −0.03 | +0.38 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 20:59 | −0.42 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:18 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.79 | −0.06 | +0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 60:24 | −0.41 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:00 | 1 | 3 | +1.79 | +0.65 | +0.35 | +0.45 | −0.02 | +0.36 | +0.00 |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 23:55 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.34 | +0.50 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.05 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:34 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.52 | +0.41 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 21:25 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.22 | −0.04 | +0.53 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:35 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.13 | +0.42 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 18:22 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.30 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 14:36 | +0.27 | +0.33 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 21:31 | +0.07 | +0.19 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 6:59 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 12:40 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 9:55 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 2:58 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Nutivaara D | 16:53 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Gusev L | 14:43 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juho Lammikko C | 9:05 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 22:17 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.46 | −0.69 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 17:00 | −0.57 | +0.07 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 16:05 | −0.58 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Driedger G | 59:58 | −2.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.