BOS beat BUF 3–2. BOS also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Craig Smith scored at 16:10 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 51% to 90%. Linus Ullmark allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:01 | BUF | Sam ReinhartPP unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 11:41 | BOS | Matt GrzelcykPP from David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 14:12 | BUF | Kyle Okposo from Steven Fogarty, Henri Jokiharju | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 5:22 | BOS | Nick Ritchie from Charlie McAvoy, Jakub Zboril | 2–2 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 16:10 | BOS | Craig Smith from David Krejci, Nick Ritchie | 2–3 | 51% → 90% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Reinhart C | 19:16 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.08 | +0.39 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 15:09 | +0.18 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Fogarty C | 9:21 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 12:48 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.07 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 16:02 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.30 | +0.39 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Sheahan C | 14:55 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 16:17 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 21:29 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 18:22 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 18:27 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 16:54 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 17:00 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 17:36 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 14:24 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 22:17 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Sebastien Dea C | 5:33 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:40 | −0.59 | −0.24 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.07 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 19:47 | −0.59 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 58:05 | −1.30 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 21:28 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.12 | +0.85 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Smith C | 17:42 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.22 | +0.27 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Ritchie L | 19:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.31 | +0.28 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 26:32 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Krejci C | 21:18 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 18:32 | +0.21 | +0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Senyshyn R | 11:50 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 7:04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 14:20 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Zboril D | 14:57 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 17:11 | −0.05 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Greg McKegg C | 4:04 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 19:45 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 17:30 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 20:18 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Studnicka C | 7:08 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Kampfer D | 15:33 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 21:24 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.13 | −0.19 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 59:39 | −0.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.