NYI beat BUF 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 2.2, NYI 1.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Anthony Beauvillier scored at 3:04 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Linus Ullmark allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:11 | NYI | Michael Dal Colle from Anthony Beauvillier | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 6:11 | BUF | Victor OlofssonPP from Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Eichel | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 4:50 | NYI | Jordan Eberle from Brock Nelson, Anthony Beauvillier | 1–2 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 18:14 | BUF | Jack EichelPP from Rasmus Ristolainen, Marcus Johansson | 2–2 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 3:04 | NYI | Anthony Beauvillier from Brock Nelson | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel C | 23:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.16 | +0.58 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Victor Olofsson R | 24:25 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.31 | +0.28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 24:02 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.37 | −0.21 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 11:46 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 20:02 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 16:18 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 18:20 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 9:14 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:34 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 12:10 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 22:43 | −0.08 | +0.16 | −0.15 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 21:07 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 11:29 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 14:11 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 19:38 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.35 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.04 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 14:41 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 18:43 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 7:05 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 62:50 | −2.36 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 17:48 | 1 | 2 | +0.71 | +0.21 | +0.19 | +0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brock Nelson C | 19:53 | 2 | +0.70 | +0.20 | −0.07 | +0.51 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 16:49 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.08 | +0.32 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Dal Colle L | 3:35 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.02 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 21:42 | +0.21 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Boychuk D | 17:19 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 21:28 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 21:07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 12:35 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 9:05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:09 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 16:08 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 23:41 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 14:30 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 17:28 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 20:21 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 19:29 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 15:44 | −0.41 | −0.36 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 63:04 | +0.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.