PHI beat OTT 4–3. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Scott Laughton scored at 15:11 of the third, moving PHI’s win probability from 51% to 89%. Anders Nilsson allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:45 | PHI | Travis Konecny from Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:27 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Connor Brown | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 6:16 | PHI | Shayne GostisbeherePP from Tyler Pitlick, James van Riemsdyk | 1–2 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 13:18 | OTT | Anthony DuclairSH unassisted | 2–2 | 25% → 46% |
| P3 3:17 | PHI | Ivan Provorov from Joel Farabee, Scott Laughton | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 15:00 | OTT | Anthony Duclair from Thomas Chabot, Dylan DeMelo | 3–3 | 12% → 49% |
| P3 15:11 | PHI | Scott Laughton from Kevin Hayes, James van Riemsdyk | 3–4 | 51% → 89% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Duclair L | 20:13 | 2 | +0.99 | +0.27 | +0.86 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:59 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 25:09 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 26:20 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.26 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 13:40 | +0.18 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 19:38 | +0.08 | +0.38 | −0.14 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Brown C | 10:13 | +0.05 | +0.22 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Mark Borowiecki D | 15:07 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Goloubef D | 12:07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Davidsson R | 5:56 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 16:51 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Anisimov C | 14:52 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 20:53 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.17 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ron Hainsey D | 18:39 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 15:27 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 21:02 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.21 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Colin White C | 17:32 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 9:01 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 6:59 | −1.67 |
| Anders Nilsson G | 50:21 | −2.14 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 15:28 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.02 | +0.88 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 18:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.02 | +0.33 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.35 | −0.03 |
| Travis Konecny R | 3:11 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.19 | +0.41 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 12:56 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 17:54 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Tyler Pitlick C | 14:20 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 11:04 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 11:25 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 26:21 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.09 | +0.38 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Niskanen D | 26:28 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Vorobyev C | 9:08 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 21:08 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | |
| Philippe Myers D | 16:38 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Voracek R | 16:41 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 18:08 | −0.33 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 20:56 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 17:38 | −0.35 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 15:52 | −0.54 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 59:24 | +0.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.