WPG beat CBJ 4–3. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Andrew Copp scored at 18:06 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:59 | CBJ | Pierre-Luc DuboisPP from Boone Jenner, Oliver Bjorkstrand | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:23 | WPG | Blake Wheeler from Jack Roslovic, Dmitry Kulikov | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 5:19 | WPG | Nikolaj Ehlers from Blake Wheeler | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 6:30 | CBJ | Seth JonesPP from Zach Werenski, Cam Atkinson | 2–2 | 32% → 48% |
| P2 7:17 | CBJ | Gustav NyquistPP from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Nick Foligno | 3–2 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 14:43 | WPG | Mathieu Perreault from Adam Lowry, Andrew Copp | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 18:06 | WPG | Andrew Copp unassisted | 3–4 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boone Jenner C | 17:30 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.35 | +0.07 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 16:14 | 2 | +0.35 | +0.23 | −0.06 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Seth Jones D | 25:22 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.02 | +0.43 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 17:18 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.13 | +0.20 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 23:25 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 18:18 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.31 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.04 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 13:30 | +0.05 | +0.16 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 15:31 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.04 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 9:53 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Dean Kukan D | 14:24 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 8:09 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 9:58 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 19:23 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Murray D | 19:16 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:11 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 13:58 | −0.25 | +0.19 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 18:34 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.19 | −0.22 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 16:31 | −0.38 | +0.09 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 58:19 | −3.26 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Wheeler R | 18:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.33 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.07 |
| Andrew Copp C | 19:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.02 | +0.42 | +0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Mathieu Perreault C | 16:00 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.08 | +0.39 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 20:13 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.30 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:06 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.13 | +0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 14:58 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 22:55 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 10:45 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 24:51 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Shaw R | 5:17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Gustafsson C | 4:15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tucker Poolman D | 18:25 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joona Luoto L | 5:10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 21:43 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 13:06 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 19:36 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 22:08 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luca Sbisa D | 18:34 | −0.52 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 11:19 | +0.67 |
| Laurent Brossoit G | 48:41 | −0.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.