NYR beat PIT 3–2 in overtime. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kaapo Kakko scored at 2:24 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Alexandar Georgiev saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:42 | NYR | Kaapo Kakko from Brendan Lemieux, Tony DeAngelo | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 19:49 | NYR | Adam Fox from Artemi Panarin, Filip Chytil | 0–2 | 72% → 85% |
| P2 1:13 |  PIT | Justin Schultz from Evgeni Malkin, Marcus Pettersson | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 12:33 | PIT | Jared McCannPP from Dominik Simon | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| OT 2:24 | NYR | Kaapo Kakko from Adam Fox, Pavel Buchnevich | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Simon C | 15:40 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 12:38 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.06 | +0.35 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| John Marino D | 22:39 | +0.26 | +0.36 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 18:25 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.16 | −0.13 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 11:29 | +0.18 | +0.16 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 19:45 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.06 | +0.34 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 18:39 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 16:01 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 15:06 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 15:45 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 17:22 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 17:53 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 24:23 | −0.03 | +0.35 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Riikola D | 16:28 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kahun C | 14:32 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 15:34 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:24 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 12:29 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 62:24 | −0.94 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kakko R | 16:38 | 2 | +0.64 | −0.08 | +0.74 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 19:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.42 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Brendan Lemieux L | 15:06 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Greg McKegg C | 10:56 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 16:36 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.15 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 8:51 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Libor Hajek D | 18:36 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 15:13 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 17:06 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lias Andersson C | 8:09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 21:30 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 17:27 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 19:57 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 15:24 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 20:30 | −0.37 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 21:32 | −0.40 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 19:44 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.31 | −0.12 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 19:24 | −0.54 | −0.37 | −0.18 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 62:24 | +1.84 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.