NSH took this one from VAN, 3–2. No robbery here: NSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.5, and the better chances went the right way. The goal that mattered most: Ryan Johansen scored at 19:39 of the third and moved NSH’s win probability from 51% to 98%.
Win probability
How it felt from the stands, priced second by second by the site’s win-probability model: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Who was actually getting the chances: a running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Not the arena’s picks, the model’s. Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:49 | VAN | Markus GranlundPP from Quinn Hughes, Tanner Pearson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 19:48 | VAN | Tanner PearsonPP from Quinn Hughes, Ryan Spooner | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 0:37 | NSH | Colton Sissons from Nick Bonino, Austin Watson | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P3 15:40 | NSH | Nick Bonino from Austin Watson, Ryan Ellis | 2–2 | 12% → 51% |
| P3 19:39 | NSH | Ryan Johansen from Filip Forsberg | 2–3 | 51% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Granlund C | 11:25 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.01 | +0.40 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 18:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.01 | +0.33 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Quinn Hughes D | 18:24 | 2 | +0.22 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.39 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Spooner C | 15:43 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 23:08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Schaller L | 8:59 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 14:00 | −0.16 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brogan Rafferty D | 12:03 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 16:16 | −0.21 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 17:37 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 11:34 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 27:36 | −0.29 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 19:16 | −0.33 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 13:23 | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 15:35 | −0.44 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 18:54 | −0.47 | −0.34 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 16:13 | −0.53 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 18:04 | −0.56 | −0.20 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 59:40 | −0.33 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bonino C | 15:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.16 | +0.26 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Colton Sissons C | 16:03 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.19 | +0.38 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 19:38 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.09 | +0.40 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Austin Watson L | 14:20 | 2 | +0.39 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:20 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.20 | −0.12 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Ellis D | 21:09 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.18 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| P.K. Subban D | 23:51 | +0.13 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:35 | +0.12 | +0.22 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 17:30 | +0.07 | +0.19 | −0.19 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 11:56 | +0.02 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 24:07 | −0.01 | +0.13 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Turris C | 15:57 | −0.02 | +0.23 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 19:20 | −0.05 | +0.25 | −0.45 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Hamhuis D | 11:59 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 15:44 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 9:45 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 8:45 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 8:49 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 60:00 | +0.76 |
One game is a tiny sample: a single goal against on a player’s shift or a lucky finish moves his net goals a lot, so don’t trade anyone over a rough night. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they’re built.