MTL beat STL 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (STL 2.1, MTL 1.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Brendan Gallagher scored at 19:49 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Jake Allen allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:39 | MTL | Max Domi from Artturi Lehkonen, Mike Reilly | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 3:21 |  STL | Vince DunnPP from Vladimir Tarasenko, Ryan O'Reilly | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 7:42 | MTL | Mike ReillyPP from Charles Hudon, Jonathan Drouin | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P3 16:31 | STL | Brayden SchennPP from Alexander Steen, David Perron | 2–2 | 10% → 49% |
| P3 19:49 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Tomas Tatar | 2–3 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:19 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.01 | +0.34 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 17:58 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.07 | +0.41 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 12:05 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:09 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Zachary Sanford L | 9:02 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 19:39 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Steen L | 17:19 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.19 | −0.07 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Schmaltz D | 11:02 | +0.03 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 13:40 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 11:28 | −0.06 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 26:25 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 9:03 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 18:17 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 19:19 | −0.13 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 14:24 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 16:35 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 16:56 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 18:44 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 59:44 | −2.62 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Reilly D | 21:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.08 | +0.43 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Tomas Tatar L | 14:07 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 16:09 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.08 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 14:47 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.36 | −0.03 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 19:56 | +0.18 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:49 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.22 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 17:25 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.35 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Jordie Benn D | 13:38 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 17:35 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 17:15 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Xavier Ouellet D | 17:03 | +0.03 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Karl Alzner D | 17:23 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Plekanec C | 10:46 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 16:48 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 23:39 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Peca C | 10:53 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 14:23 | −0.24 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Charles Hudon L | 10:09 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 59:52 | −1.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.