BOS beat DET 6–5 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (DET 3.2, BOS 3.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Brad Marchand scored at 0:34 of overtime, moving BOS’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jimmy Howard allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:37 | BOS | Torey Krug from Nick Holden, Brad Marchand | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 0:52 | BOS | Jake DeBrusk unassisted | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 2:16 | DET | Frans NielsenPP from Henrik Zetterberg | 1–2 | 19% → 31% |
| P1 7:53 | DET | Mike Green from Andreas Athanasiou, Anthony Mantha | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 13:48 | BOS | Torey KrugPP from Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak | 2–3 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 3:27 | BOS | Brad MarchandPP from Torey Krug, David Pastrnak | 2–4 | 73% → 86% |
| P2 12:05 | DET | Anthony Mantha from Mike Green, Tyler Bertuzzi | 3–4 | 11% → 26% |
| P2 13:18 | BOS | Brad Marchand from David Pastrnak, Riley Nash | 3–5 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 15:50 | DET | Anthony Mantha from Justin Abdelkader, Dylan Larkin | 4–5 | 10% → 25% |
| P3 9:46 | DET | Martin Frk from Tyler Bertuzzi, Anthony Mantha | 5–5 | 18% → 48% |
| OT 0:34 | BOS | Brad Marchand from Torey Krug, Riley Nash | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Mantha R | 18:51 | 2 | 2 | +0.73 | −0.04 | +0.64 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Frans Nielsen C | 5:22 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.05 | +0.39 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Mike Green D | 23:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.12 | +0.43 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Martin Frk R | 8:52 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.37 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 16:50 | 2 | +0.27 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.24 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 13:58 | +0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 13:19 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.12 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Trevor Daley D | 19:09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Abdelkader L | 20:52 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Zetterberg C | 22:08 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.21 | +0.21 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Darren Helm C | 15:16 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Niklas Kronwall D | 20:08 | −0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Ericsson D | 16:37 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 19:19 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 20:59 | −0.16 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 13:18 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Witkowski D | 3:42 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 21:53 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.80 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Coreau G | 23:27 | −1.88 |
| Jimmy Howard G | 37:07 | −2.11 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torey Krug D | 20:18 | 2 | 2 | +1.63 | +0.25 | +0.65 | +0.55 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Brad Marchand L | 19:38 | 3 | 2 | +1.53 | +0.36 | +1.19 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Riley Nash C | 16:32 | 2 | +0.52 | +0.31 | −0.03 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.09 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 16:24 | 3 | +0.40 | +0.23 | −0.27 | +0.43 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Holden D | 16:18 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 12:54 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.07 | +0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zdeno Chara D | 25:26 | +0.13 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 12:26 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 13:10 | +0.02 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rick Nash L | 17:28 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Gionta R | 13:44 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 18:07 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevan Miller D | 21:13 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Backes R | 15:37 | −0.11 | +0.15 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Tim Schaller L | 13:09 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Krejci C | 17:11 | −0.33 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.10 | ||
| Tommy Wingels C | 10:50 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 11:11 | −0.67 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Khudobin G | 60:34 | −0.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.