BUF beat NYR 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 2.5, BUF 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jack Eichel scored at 14:28 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 51% to 88%. Henrik Lundqvist allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:18 | BUF | Johan Larsson from Jake McCabe, Brian Gionta | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 16:15 | NYR | Ryan McDonaghPP from Derek Stepan | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 8:15 | NYR | Rick NashPP from Jimmy Vesey, Adam Clendening | 2–1 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 9:48 | BUF | Brian Gionta from Marcus Foligno | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 11:42 | NYR | Marc Staal from Jesper Fast, Chris Kreider | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 12:45 | BUF | Jack EichelPP from Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Ristolainen | 3–3 | 18% → 51% |
| P3 14:28 | BUF | Jack Eichel from Sam Reinhart, Evander Kane | 3–4 | 51% → 88% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Staal D | 21:29 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.10 | +0.32 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Stepan C | 16:25 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 17:50 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 14:51 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.13 | −0.14 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Rick Nash L | 17:45 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.07 | +0.27 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 25:00 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.23 | +0.38 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 16:35 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Holden D | 21:33 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 14:06 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Clendening D | 14:21 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Oscar Lindberg L | 7:57 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:08 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Puempel L | 7:47 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 18:55 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 15:42 | −0.24 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 15:11 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Pirri C | 14:50 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.02 | ||
| Dan Girardi D | 21:00 | −0.35 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 59:11 | −2.90 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel C | 19:57 | 2 | +1.19 | +0.05 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.35 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 15:13 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.06 | +0.43 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Gionta R | 15:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.00 | +0.32 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Sam Reinhart C | 19:36 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Fedun D | 12:33 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 24:04 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.20 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Falk D | 12:26 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 19:15 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.18 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:45 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.23 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Evander Kane L | 18:10 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Derek Grant C | 6:41 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 8:58 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Franson D | 21:12 | −0.07 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:23 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 9:40 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Gorges D | 21:01 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Moulson L | 10:48 | −0.14 | +0.16 | −0.23 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 26:32 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anders Nilsson G | 60:00 | −0.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.