ARI beat PHI 4–3 in overtime. ARI also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 3.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Oliver Ekman-Larsson scored on the power play at 3:12 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Steve Mason allowed 1.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:49 | ARI | Shane DoanPP from Alex Goligoski, Christian Dvorak | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 12:31 | PHI | Michael Raffl from Nick Schultz, Brandon Manning | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 14:17 | ARI | Martin Hanzal from Jakob Chychrun, Max Domi | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 0:17 | ARI | Brad RichardsonSH from Jordan Martinook | 1–3 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 6:16 | PHI | Wayne Simmonds from Claude Giroux, Mark Streit | 2–3 | 13% → 27% |
| P3 4:36 | PHI | Matt Read from Travis Konecny, Brandon Manning | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| OT 3:12 | ARI | Oliver Ekman-LarssonPP from Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Raffl L | 12:10 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.10 | +0.39 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schultz D | 17:45 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Manning D | 15:01 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 15:35 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Read R | 11:08 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 22:14 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.08 | −0.19 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Wayne Simmonds R | 21:23 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.03 | +0.31 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 19:31 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Dale Weise R | 13:32 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris VandeVelde C | 9:35 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 15:17 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 18:55 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Andrew MacDonald D | 20:37 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boyd Gordon C | 8:41 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 23:29 | −0.25 | +0.07 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Streit D | 21:00 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 12:31 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Voracek R | 21:14 | −0.45 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Steve Mason G | 63:12 | −1.02 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 31:46 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.27 | +0.96 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Richardson R | 16:27 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.10 | +0.69 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Martin Hanzal C | 20:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.23 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.02 |
| Shane Doan R | 16:02 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.13 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 12:09 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie McBain D | 14:31 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 15:57 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 11:35 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Laurent Dauphin C | 10:00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 24:47 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 5:36 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:36 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan White C | 10:25 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 14:41 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Vrbata R | 18:49 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.29 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.02 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:17 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 24:57 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.20 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 21:46 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 63:02 | +0.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.