NSH beat CAR 2–1 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 1.7, CAR 1.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mattias Ekholm scored at 3:09 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Pekka Rinne saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:58 | CAR | Victor Rask from Jeff Skinner, Phillip Di Giuseppe | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 12:35 | NSH | Paul GaustadSH from Mattias Ekholm, Miikka Salomaki | 1–1 | 25% → 46% |
| OT 3:09 | NSH | Mattias Ekholm from Filip Forsberg, Ryan Ellis | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.29 | +0.59 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Paul Gaustad C | 10:57 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.25 | +0.80 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 22:34 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Ellis D | 22:10 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Hodgson C | 8:17 | +0.03 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barret Jackman D | 10:43 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 19:56 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Wilson C | 13:32 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Neal L | 19:46 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 14:49 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miikka Salomaki R | 11:29 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Ribeiro C | 18:51 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Eric Nystrom L | 9:05 | −0.15 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 14:45 | −0.17 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 26:29 | −0.20 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Fisher C | 21:51 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 11:55 | −0.35 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.34 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 25:26 | −0.45 | −0.44 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 63:09 | +2.45 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaccob Slavin D | 23:41 | +0.29 | +0.41 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John-Michael Liles D | 22:08 | +0.26 | +0.31 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 17:45 | +0.22 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 19:53 | +0.14 | +0.32 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 22:19 | +0.10 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 14:54 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.40 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Riley Nash C | 12:49 | +0.06 | +0.35 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kris Versteeg R | 15:32 | +0.03 | +0.20 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Nestrasil C | 18:10 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 15:37 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:07 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 23:26 | −0.07 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 16:28 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.09 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 5:12 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Terry L | 8:25 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Malone C | 9:30 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 16:02 | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 19:33 | −0.50 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lack G | 63:09 | −1.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.