CBJ beat NYI 5–4 in a shootout. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 6.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Scott Hartnell scored on the power play at 18:25 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 5% to 50%. Jaroslav Halak allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:50 | CBJ | Cam AtkinsonPP from Boone Jenner, David Savard | 1–0 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 11:02 | NYI | Kyle Okposo from Josh Bailey, Nikolay Kulemin | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 2:52 | NYI | Eric Boulton from Tyler Kennedy, Nick Leddy | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 3:47 | NYI | John Tavares from Kyle Okposo, Nick Leddy | 1–3 | 79% → 93% |
| P3 9:37 | CBJ | Brandon Dubinsky from Kevin Connauton, Cody Goloubef | 2–3 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 11:11 | CBJ | Alexander WennbergPP from Marko Dano, Scott Hartnell | 3–3 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 15:36 | NYI | Nikolay Kulemin from John Tavares, Lubomir Visnovsky | 3–4 | 51% → 89% |
| P3 18:25 | CBJ | Scott HartnellPP from Artem Anisimov, Jack Johnson | 4–4 | 5% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:47 | 1 | +1.89 | +0.27 | +0.67 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.07 | +1.05 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 13:52 | 1 | +1.04 | −0.09 | +0.18 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.05 | |
| Scott Hartnell L | 16:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.32 | +0.34 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Johnson D | 26:26 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.22 | −0.07 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 15:22 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.19 | +0.36 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marko Dano C | 13:03 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Connauton D | 15:20 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Goloubef D | 16:05 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Morin L | 10:15 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 20:41 | −0.29 | −0.24 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 15:44 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.19 | −0.25 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Calvert L | 14:39 | −0.34 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Dalton Prout D | 21:02 | −0.37 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 25:55 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.15 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artem Anisimov C | 15:37 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.55 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fedor Tyutin D | 24:19 | −0.51 | −0.47 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Letestu C | 13:56 | −0.74 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.30 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 15:31 | −0.76 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.36 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Curtis McElhinney G | 64:40 | +1.66 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares C | 21:10 | 1 | 1 | +1.90 | +0.59 | +0.18 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.35 | +0.08 | +0.70 |
| Kyle Okposo R | 21:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.75 | +0.20 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 |
| Nikolay Kulemin L | 21:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.38 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.14 |
| Nick Leddy D | 22:40 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.41 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Kennedy C | 8:45 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lubomir Visnovsky D | 22:12 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 16:27 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.13 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Boychuk D | 25:01 | +0.01 | +0.21 | −0.08 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 18:11 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Strait D | 18:40 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Boulton L | 7:33 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.26 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Hickey D | 19:38 | −0.07 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 17:08 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 17:05 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 15:21 | −0.30 | +0.09 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:24 | −0.37 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 15:19 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:11 | −0.76 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.45 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 65:00 | −2.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.