SJS beat WPG 3–2. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Marc-Edouard Vlasic scored at 19:55 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 49% to 96%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:53 | SJS | Brent BurnsPP from Patrick Marleau, Logan Couture | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:17 | WPG | Andrew LaddPP from Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 4:15 | SJS | Melker Karlsson from Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 4:03 | WPG | Jay HarrisonPP from Adam Lowry, Michael Frolik | 2–2 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 19:55 | SJS | Marc-Edouard Vlasic from Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski | 3–2 | 49% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Pavelski C | 22:45 | 2 | +0.49 | +0.40 | −0.22 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.07 | |
| Melker Karlsson C | 11:38 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.04 | +0.38 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 19:59 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.04 | +0.44 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Couture C | 23:13 | 2 | +0.40 | +0.31 | −0.07 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 23:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.26 | +0.40 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| James Sheppard C | 17:34 | +0.18 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 15:34 | +0.16 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| John Scott L | 4:48 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 21:44 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 12:07 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Tennyson D | 18:20 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 16:23 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 15:00 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrew Desjardins L | 8:18 | −0.14 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Tye McGinn L | 6:46 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 19:47 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 16:54 | −0.35 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Wingels C | 22:02 | −0.45 | +0.17 | −0.57 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Niemi G | 59:34 | −0.16 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Harrison D | 20:31 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.16 | +0.36 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 11:46 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Bryan Little C | 19:27 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Andrew Ladd L | 20:57 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.33 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Wheeler R | 20:00 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Perreault C | 18:12 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 21:15 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Peluso R | 3:53 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Julien Brouillette D | 9:33 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Thorburn R | 5:13 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Postma D | 16:25 | −0.12 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pardy D | 20:14 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 16:54 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.18 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| TJ Galiardi L | 14:08 | −0.22 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Halischuk R | 11:51 | −0.29 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 16:57 | −0.33 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.05 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 29:19 | −0.34 | −0.24 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jim Slater C | 9:51 | −0.35 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Hutchinson G | 59:55 | +0.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.