MIN beat CHI 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (CHI 1.3, MIN 1.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Marco Scandella scored at 18:12 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Corey Crawford allowed 4.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:23 | MIN | Matt Cooke from Torrey Mitchell, Erik Haula | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 16:59 | MIN | Zach ParisePP from Dany Heatley, Jason Pominville | 0–2 | 77% → 91% |
| P2 19:43 | CHI | Jeremy Morin from Joakim Nordstrom, Patrick Kane | 1–2 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 0:43 | CHI | Brandon Saad unassisted | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 6:35 | CHI | Marian HossaPP from Kris Versteeg, Nick Leddy | 3–2 | 49% → 78% |
| P3 14:21 | MIN | Jonas BrodinPP from Jared Spurgeon, Justin Fontaine | 3–3 | 15% → 51% |
| P3 18:12 | MIN | Marco Scandella from Jared Spurgeon, Charlie Coyle | 3–4 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Morin L | 8:17 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.02 | +0.39 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 20:34 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Versteeg R | 15:39 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marian Hossa R | 19:24 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.03 | +0.35 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 19:59 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.12 | +0.44 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 15:16 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 9:55 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 18:57 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michal Rozsival D | 18:20 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Oduya D | 18:37 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 21:16 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Sheldon Brookbank D | 4:59 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Kruger C | 12:54 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brandon Bollig L | 12:58 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Duncan Keith D | 25:15 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Seabrook D | 20:50 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Smith R | 15:07 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Patrick Sharp L | 20:00 | −0.44 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Crawford G | 58:31 | −4.41 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Brodin D | 25:28 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.06 | +0.35 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 20:31 | 2 | +0.41 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 19:06 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.04 | +0.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Parise L | 19:40 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.05 | +0.35 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Cooke L | 15:35 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.09 | +0.43 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torrey Mitchell C | 14:16 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Pominville R | 18:28 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Koivu C | 19:49 | +0.16 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.12 | ||
| Dany Heatley L | 16:26 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 14:51 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.04 | |
| Justin Fontaine R | 9:21 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 9:21 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Clayton Stoner D | 13:55 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Ballard D | 13:16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Rupp L | 8:20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Brodziak C | 18:15 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 26:06 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 13:54 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Harding G | 59:59 | −2.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.