OTT beat FLA 4–3. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nick Foligno scored at 19:56 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 51% to 98%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 3.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:41 | FLA | Jason Garrison from Kris Versteeg, Brian Campbell | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 5:27 | OTT | Daniel AlfredssonPP from Jason Spezza, Sergei Gonchar | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 6:35 | FLA | Stephen Weiss from Tomas Fleischmann, Dmitry Kulikov | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 14:14 | OTT | Stephane Da Costa from Erik Condra, Milan Michalek | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 17:53 | OTT | Colin Greening from Erik Karlsson | 2–3 | 50% → 93% |
| P3 19:12 | FLA | Kris VersteegPP from Stephen Weiss, Dmitry Kulikov | 3–3 | 4% → 50% |
| P3 19:56 | OTT | Nick Foligno from Daniel Alfredsson, David Rundblad | 3–4 | 51% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Versteeg R | 18:18 | 1 | 1 | +1.00 | −0.11 | +0.91 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jason Garrison D | 22:42 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.25 | +0.41 | −0.07 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Kopecky R | 17:05 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.01 | ||
| Stephen Weiss C | 19:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Tomas Fleischmann L | 18:52 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Kennedy L | 8:13 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.01 | ||
| Mike Weaver D | 19:38 | −0.05 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 11:51 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scottie Upshall R | 13:09 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ed Jovanovski D | 16:23 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Santorelli C | 14:27 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brian Campbell D | 25:49 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 23:48 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shawn Matthias L | 9:11 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Marcel Goc C | 17:02 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Jack Skille R | 14:13 | −0.26 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Bradley R | 8:52 | −0.37 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Sturm L | 14:54 | −0.37 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 59:35 | −3.62 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Alfredsson R | 18:48 | 1 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.30 | +0.63 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Nick Foligno L | 15:40 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.34 | +0.28 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Rundblad D | 18:42 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.28 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Stephane Da Costa C | 15:53 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.29 | +0.33 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.04 | |
| Colin Greening C | 17:24 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.04 | +0.42 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Condra R | 9:06 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Milan Michalek L | 20:03 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:38 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Phillips D | 19:23 | +0.11 | +0.26 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zenon Konopka C | 5:07 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jared Cowen D | 18:32 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sergei Gonchar D | 19:54 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.23 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Winchester C | 6:08 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Kuba D | 19:15 | −0.07 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaspars Daugavins L | 14:31 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Neil R | 13:06 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Smith C | 15:42 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 18:14 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.15 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 59:54 | −2.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.