Conor Timmins — Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo Sabres › Conor Timmins

Conor Timmins

D · #21 · BUF · 28 · Shot-blocking PK defenseman · Average steadiness (60th pct)

Average career stats over an 84-game season

+/−

PIM

16:21

TOI/GP

0:29

PP TOI/GP

1:17

SH TOI/GP

Regular seasonPlayoffsSeasonCareer to dateRawRegressed

Season	Team	Type	GP	Box score					Net goals per 84 games											Elo	Playoffs	On-ice context						Contract
Season	Team	Type	GP	G	A	P	+/−	PIM	EV off	EV def	PP	PK	Fin	Play	Supp	Pen	FO	SO	Overall	Elo	Playoffs	Comp	Mates	Top linemates				Cap hit	% of cap	NG/84 per $M
2020-21			31	0	7	7	+6	8	+0.912:56	+1.5	+0.00:10	-0.50:25	-2.3	+0.8	-0.2	+0.2	+0.0	+0.0	+0.5	+2	+0.410 GP	-0.3	+3.6	Graves 31%	Kadri 30%	Nichushkin 30%	Jost 28%	$0.93M	1.1%	+0.52
2022-23			27	2	12	14	-1	8	+0.713:51	+2.3	-0.91:09	-0.20:04	+3.4	+0.6	-0.5	+0.1	+0.0	+0.0	+5.5	+20		-0.6	+3.0	Brodie 40%	Bunting 27%	Nylander 26%	Matthews 25%	$0.85M	1.0%	+6.41
2023-24			25	1	9	10	+9	18	+1.714:17	+1.9	+0.21:38	+0.20:05	-0.9	+1.1	-0.2	-2.5	+0.0	-0.0	+1.5	+15		-0.6	+3.4	Benoit 34%	Domi 32%	Robertson 30%	Bertuzzi 28%	$1.10M	1.3%	+1.38
2024-25			68	3	12	15	+11	30	+0.515:01	-0.1	+0.00:13	-0.61:39	-0.1	+0.0	+0.2	-0.8	+0.0	+0.0	-0.9	+4		+0.3	+0.7	Benoit 42%	Nylander 20%	Holmberg 17%	Knies 17%	$1.10M	1.2%	-0.84
2025-26			39	0	8	8	-8	18	-0.515:43	-1.7	-0.20:00	-0.43:01	-3.3	+0.7	-0.1	-0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-5.4	-17	-1.613 GP	+1.0	+1.6	Byram 35%	McLeod 34%	Tuch 32%	Power 26%	$2.20M	2.3%	-2.46
2020-21			31	0	7	7	+6	8	+0.212:56	+0.3	+0.00:10	-0.10:25	-0.1	+0.8	-0.2	+0.1	-0.0	-0.0	+1.0	+2	+0.410 GP	-0.3	+3.6	Graves 31%	Kadri 30%	Nichushkin 30%	Jost 28%	$0.93M	1.1%	+1.08
2022-23			27	2	12	14	-1	8	+0.313:51	+0.5	-0.21:09	-0.10:04	-0.0	+0.6	-0.3	+0.1	+0.0	+0.0	+0.9	+20		-0.6	+3.0	Brodie 40%	Bunting 27%	Nylander 26%	Matthews 25%	$0.85M	1.0%	+1.06
2023-24			25	1	9	10	+9	18	+0.614:17	+0.5	-0.01:38	-0.00:05	-0.0	+1.1	-0.2	-0.5	+0.0	-0.0	+1.5	+15		-0.6	+3.4	Benoit 34%	Domi 32%	Robertson 30%	Bertuzzi 28%	$1.10M	1.3%	+1.36
2024-25			68	3	12	15	+11	30	+0.515:01	+0.2	-0.00:13	-0.21:39	-0.0	+0.1	+0.1	-0.5	+0.0	+0.0	+0.1	+4		+0.3	+0.7	Benoit 42%	Nylander 20%	Holmberg 17%	Knies 17%	$1.10M	1.2%	+0.09
2025-26			39	0	8	8	-8	18	+0.215:43	-0.1	-0.10:00	-0.23:01	-0.2	+0.7	-0.2	-0.3	+0.0	+0.0	-0.2	-17	-1.613 GP	+1.0	+1.6	Byram 35%	McLeod 34%	Tuch 32%	Power 26%	$2.20M	2.3%	-0.08
2020-21			31	0	7	7	+8	8	+0.212:56	+0.1	+0.00:10	-0.00:25	-0.1	+0.6	+0.1	+0.1	-0.0	-0.0	+1.0	1505	-1.512 GP	-0.2	+3.6	Graves 32%	Nichushkin 30%	Kadri 29%	Jost 26%	$0.93M	1.1%	+1.09
2022-23			58	2	19	21	+1	16	+0.313:51	+0.3	-0.11:09	-0.00:04	+0.0	+0.5	-0.2	+0.1	+0.0	-0.0	+0.9	1516	-1.512 GP	-0.3	+2.3	Brodie 17%	Graves 15%	Nichushkin 14%	Kadri 13%	$0.89M	1.1%	+1.02
2023-24			83	3	28	31	+10	34	+0.514:17	+0.4	-0.11:38	-0.00:05	-0.0	+1.2	-0.3	-0.3	+0.0	-0.0	+1.4	1528	-1.512 GP	-0.4	+2.6	Brodie 12%	Graves 11%	Benoit 10%	Nichushkin 10%	$0.93M	1.1%	+1.46
2024-25			151	6	40	46	+21	64	+0.515:01	+0.3	-0.00:13	-0.11:39	-0.0	+0.4	-0.4	-0.5	+0.0	-0.0	+0.2	1526	-1.512 GP	-0.1	+1.7	Benoit 25%	Nylander 13%	Holmberg 8%	Knies 8%	$0.96M	1.2%	+0.26
2025-26			190	6	48	54	+13	82	+0.415:43	+0.2	-0.00:00	-0.13:01	-0.2	+0.6	-0.1	-0.4	+0.0	-0.0	+0.2	1504	-1.525 GP	+0.2	+1.7	Benoit 19%	Nylander 10%	Byram 8%	McLeod 8%	$1.14M	1.3%	+0.22

Season	Team	GP	Box score					Net goals per 84 games
Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−	PIM	EV off	EV def	PP	PK	Fin	Play	Supp	Pen	FO	SO	Overall
2019-20		2	0	0	0	+1	4	+0.4	+1.6	-0.1	-0.2	+0.7	+0.3	-0.3	-13.6	+0.0	+0.0	-11.1
2020-21		10	0	0	0	-2	0	+1.4	+0.2	+0.1	-0.4	-2.1	+0.3	-0.2	+1.2	+0.0	+0.0	+0.4
2025-26		13	0	2	2	+0	8	-0.2	+0.8	-0.2	+0.7	-3.1	+0.4	-0.0	-0.0	+0.0	+0.0	-1.6
2019-20		2	0	0	0	+1	4	+0.4	+1.6	-0.1	-0.2	+0.7	+0.3	-0.3	-13.6	+0.0	+0.0	-11.1
2020-21		12	0	0	0	-1	4	+1.3	+0.4	+0.1	-0.4	-1.6	+0.3	-0.2	-1.3	+0.0	+0.0	-1.5
2025-26		25	0	2	2	-1	12	+0.5	+0.6	-0.1	+0.2	-2.4	+0.4	-0.1	-0.6	+0.0	+0.0	-1.5

NHL Edge — tracking, 2021-22 on

Season	Shot mph	Speed mph	20–22 /GP	18–20 /GP	Miles /60
2022-23			0.2	2.5	8.7
2023-24			0.1	3.1	8.9
2024-25	94.5	20.8	0.2	2.6	8.6
2025-26			0.3	2.6	8.2

Over time

84-game formtrailing net goals/84

Career net goalsrunning total vs a league-average player

84-game stretcheshis best and worst windows of the form line

	G	A	P	PPP	+/−	TOI/GP	Pen taken	Pen drawn	FO%	Team W-L-OTL
Best+2.7Jan 24 ’21 – Apr 9 ’24	3	27	30	6	+8	15:06	15	6	—	47-29-8
Worst-3.6Nov 27 ’24 – Mar 27 ’26	2	16	18	0	-6	17:49	19	11	—	44-32-8

Games and opponents

Single-game net goalsshare of his 198 games by that night’s total

Best game +1.00 net goals · Jan 8, 2023 at PHI (W 6–2) · Game recap →

Vs competition quartilescareer at 5v5, opposing fives ranked by average net goals/84

Shots

Shot mixhis shots on goal by type and location, 2010-11 on

	Share	Total shots	Avg dist (ft)	xG	G	G/xG	Net goals/84
Wrist	60%	117	54	5.0	4	0.80	-0.5
Snap	14%	27	53	1.2	1	0.86	–
Slap	21%	40	55	1.9	1	0.52	–
Backhand	2%	4	15	0.3	0	–	–
Tip-in	1%	1	22	0.1	0	–	–
Deflection	1%	2	44	0.3	0	–	–
Other	2%	3	7	0.2	0	–	–
Total		194	52	9.0	6	0.67	-1.3

	Share	Total shots	Avg dist (ft)	xG	G	G/xG	Net goals/84
Wrist	59%	106	51	4.3	4	0.93	-0.1
Snap	15%	26	50	1.2	1	0.86	–
Slap	21%	37	56	1.6	1	0.62	–
Backhand	2%	4	15	0.3	0	–	–
Tip-in	1%	1	22	0.1	0	–	–
Deflection	1%	2	44	0.3	0	–	–
Other	2%	3	7	0.2	0	–	–
Total		179	50	8.0	6	0.75	-0.9

	Share	Total shots	Avg dist (ft)	xG	G/xG	Net goals/84
Wrist	62%	5	42	0.4	–	–
Slap	38%	3	42	0.3	–	–
Total		8	42	0.7	–	–

	Share	Total shots	Avg dist (ft)	xG	G/xG	Net goals/84
Wrist	80%	4	145	0.1	–	–
Snap	20%	1	145	0.0	–	–
Total		5	145	0.1	–	–

The rink is drawn from his side: he attacks left to right, his left on top. Right half: where his own shots come from. Left half: where opponents shoot from while he is on the ice (shared with his linemates and the team system). Blue = a bigger share of those shots from that zone than the league average for defensemen in the same situation (and shot type, when one is picked); red = a smaller share.

shots on goal against with him on vs defensemen · n=1,530 · ±0.08pphis shots on goal vs defensemen · n=192 · ±0.30pp

Best finishes on videohis lowest-xG goals with a highlight clip (2018-19 on)

	xG	Date	Opp	Sit	Shot
1	0.012	Jan 8, 2023	at PHI	EV	Wrist	Watch ▸
2	0.015	Dec 12, 2023	at NYR	EV	Wrist	Watch ▸
3	0.036	Mar 2, 2025	at PIT	EV	Wrist	Watch ▸

Comparables at 27

The most similar players at the same age: level, trajectory, experience, ice time and style. Net goals per 84 then, and over their next three seasons.

Now: −1.9 (2025-26 and the season before, regressed)

Conorcomparables

Ian Cole 2016-17 PIT · 82% match
then −1.2→−1.1 −5.6 −0.5
Jake McCabe 2021-22 CHI · 79% match
then −1.3→+1.4 +5.1 +1.4
Bryan Allen 2007-08 FLA · 78% match
then −1.8→2 GP −3.9 +1.8
Mark Barberio 2017-18 COL · 76% match
then −2.9→+1.8 −5.9 out
Mark Fayne 2014-15 EDM · 76% match
then −1.1→−3.3 4 GP out

They averaged −0.3 the next season; 3 of 5 were still in the NHL three seasons later. In backtests, comparables add information about how long a career lasts; for next season, the forecast above is the better guide.