TOR beat PHI 6–2. Expected goals were close to even (TOR 3.2, PHI 3.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Calle Jarnkrok scored at 9:51 of the first, moving TOR’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Carter Hart allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:51 | TOR | Calle Jarnkrok from Mitch Marner, Conor Timmins | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 17:44 | TOR | Zachary Aston-Reese from Pontus Holmberg | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P1 18:00 | PHI | Travis Konecny unassisted | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 7:01 | TOR | Conor Timmins from Mitch Marner, John Tavares | 3–1 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 8:50 | PHI | Nicolas Deslauriers from Patrick Brown | 3–2 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 10:07 | TOR | Timothy LiljegrenSH from Calle Jarnkrok | 4–2 | 68% → 84% |
| P2 12:22 | TOR | John Tavares from Calle Jarnkrok | 5–2 | 85% → 96% |
| P3 13:13 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from John Tavares, Mitch Marner | 6–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Timmins D | 18:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | −0.04 | +0.92 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 12:47 | 1 | 2 | +0.83 | +0.09 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 9:53 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.07 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 17:46 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.12 | +0.52 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 17:29 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.53 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Justin Holl D | 21:47 | +0.25 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 8:31 | +0.17 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| John Tavares C | 13:30 | 1 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| David Kampf C | 20:06 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 15:20 | 3 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.22 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 16:08 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:44 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 18:15 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 17:09 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 18:56 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:54 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 13:29 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 11:11 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 60:00 | +1.25 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 13:07 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.04 | +0.64 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 16:57 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.07 | +0.55 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cam York D | 22:26 | +0.35 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 16:41 | +0.15 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 19:31 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 12:34 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 23:25 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 7:05 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Brown C | 12:16 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Noah Cates L | 16:29 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 15:26 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 19:31 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 16:13 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 15:42 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 14:39 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 17:57 | −0.31 | +0.06 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 23:11 | −0.41 | −0.16 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wade Allison R | 11:46 | −0.61 | −0.00 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 59:42 | −2.60 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.