VAN beat CGY 4–1. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Elias Pettersson scored at 9:04 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 52% to 82%. Leevi Meriläinen saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:51 |  CGY | Matt CoronatoPP from Zayne Parekh, Joel Farabee | 1–0 | 48% → 64% |
| P3 1:28 | VAN | Liam Ohgren from Paul Cotter, Tom Willander | 1–1 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 9:04 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Liam Ohgren, Tom Willander | 1–2 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 16:33 | VAN | Drew O'Connor from Linus Karlsson | 1–3 | 91% → 99% |
| P3 17:16 | VAN | Aatu RätyEN from Linus Karlsson, Elias Pettersson | 1–4 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Coronato R | 16:48 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.04 | +0.44 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Klapka R | 8:07 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 25:01 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 16:55 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 19:59 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Gridin R | 16:46 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Honzek L | 15:40 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 12:31 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:57 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 11:29 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 14:35 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 15:48 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 16:18 | −0.24 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brennan Othmann L | 10:30 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 11:34 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zayne Parekh D | 17:00 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.22 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 22:37 | −0.40 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 17:39 | −0.50 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Cooley G | 59:46 | +0.37 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson D | 14:47 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.29 | +0.39 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam Ohgren L | 17:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.25 | +0.24 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Linus Karlsson C | 18:09 | 2 | +0.36 | +0.09 | −0.09 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 17:50 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.08 | +0.34 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 14:05 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.20 | −0.07 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 22:24 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Aatu Räty C | 9:30 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.06 | |
| Tom Willander D | 20:16 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zeev Buium D | 22:49 | +0.08 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 17:54 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 28:52 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arshdeep Bains L | 11:04 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 10:08 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 11:15 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 8:04 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 18:37 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 12:14 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 20:09 | −0.46 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Leevi Meriläinen G | 60:00 | +1.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.