MIN beat BOS 4–1. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Quinn Hughes scored on the power play at 12:28 of the second, moving MIN’s win probability from 54% to 74%. Jesper Wallstedt saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:53 |  BOS | Tanner Jeannot from Mark Kastelic, Connor Clifton | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 6:11 |  MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Maksim Shabanov, Joel Eriksson Ek | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 12:28 | MIN | Quinn HughesPP from Bobby Brink, Ryan Hartman | 1–2 | 54% → 74% |
| P3 3:24 | MIN | Jared Spurgeon from Michael McCarron, Quinn Hughes | 1–3 | 79% → 93% |
| P3 18:59 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovEN unassisted | 1–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Jeannot L | 8:10 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.00 | +0.41 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 10:59 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 18:45 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 10:36 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 21:00 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 16:56 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:38 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 16:36 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 12:43 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 18:06 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 19:27 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| James Hagens C | 13:43 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 19:21 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 20:38 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 14:28 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 15:45 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 21:02 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:18 | −0.44 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Michael DiPietro G | 57:53 | −0.68 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Hughes D | 22:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.10 | +0.28 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Maksim Shabanov R | 14:55 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 20:06 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.02 | +0.46 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 18:49 | 2 | +0.26 | +0.10 | +0.23 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 11:17 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 16:58 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.09 | −0.18 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 13:53 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 21:39 | +0.05 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 18:05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.31 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.37 | −0.01 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 23:13 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:04 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 12:41 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 15:54 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 11:30 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.04 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 17:47 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 13:34 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 15:03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 14:09 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 60:00 | +1.57 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.