NYI beat NJD 6–0. Expected goals were close to even (NJD 3.5, NYI 3.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Simon Holmstrom scored at 3:32 of the second, moving NYI’s win probability from 53% to 72%. Ilya Sorokin saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:32 |  NYI | Simon Holmstrom from Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Adam Pelech | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 5:00 | NYI | Brayden Schenn from Victor Eklund, Matthew Schaefer | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 12:08 | NYI | Bo HorvatPP from Matthew Schaefer | 0–3 | 89% → 97% |
| P3 11:32 | NYI | Victor Eklund from Calum Ritchie, Brayden Schenn | 0–4 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 12:14 | NYI | Ondrej Palat from Casey Cizikas, Logan Stanley | 0–5 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 18:41 | NYI | Casey CizikasSH from Simon Holmstrom, Logan Stanley | 0–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Chisholm D | 12:40 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 11:40 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 13:13 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:17 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 15:08 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 18:52 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 8:48 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:14 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arseny Gritsyuk R | 15:22 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 18:55 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 15:53 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 21:08 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 19:57 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.36 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 15:02 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 21:01 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 19:19 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 21:41 | −0.47 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Amadeus Lombardi C | 8:13 | −0.51 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Daws G | 59:52 | −0.73 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.01 | +0.38 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 16:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Matthew Schaefer D | 20:34 | 2 | +0.35 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Eklund R | 12:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.03 | +0.39 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:07 | +0.30 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 19:53 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 14:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.04 | +0.08 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Ondrej Palat L | 12:27 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.24 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 18:31 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.12 | +0.32 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:49 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Calum Ritchie C | 13:42 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 11:37 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 19:13 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 19:00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 16:33 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 17:44 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 19:10 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 14:37 | −0.51 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:00 | +2.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.