EDM beat SEA 3–1. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Leon Draisaitl scored at 17:33 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 51% to 93%. Devon Levi saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:51 | EDM | Owen Michaels from Alex Formenton | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 9:06 | SEA | Bobby McMannPP from Jordan Eberle, Chandler Stephenson | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 17:33 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Connor McDavid, Ryan Shea | 1–2 | 51% → 93% |
| P3 18:55 | EDM | Connor McDavidEN from Vasily Podkolzin | 1–3 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby McMann C | 17:58 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.31 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Meyers C | 10:59 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:10 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 18:07 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 11:54 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Fleury D | 13:47 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 13:57 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 23:39 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 11:37 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 23:21 | −0.20 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 14:40 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 11:26 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Berkly Catton C | 15:40 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 13:11 | −0.32 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 16:06 | −0.36 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 23:50 | −0.38 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 14:29 | −0.45 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 19:03 | −0.52 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 59:06 | +0.45 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 24:08 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.33 | +0.13 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.07 | |
| Owen Michaels R | 13:58 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.02 | +0.43 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 26:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.29 | −0.28 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.04 |
| Ty Emberson D | 11:22 | +0.23 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 21:31 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 27:01 | +0.07 | +0.29 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 20:22 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.29 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Formenton L | 14:03 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:41 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 17:48 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 15:04 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 12:33 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 8:15 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Samanski C | 6:18 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 9:42 | −0.16 | +0.23 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 13:52 | −0.17 | +0.08 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaac Howard L | 8:22 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 19:21 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devon Levi G | 59:38 | +1.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.