UTA beat CBJ 4–1. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mikhail Sergachev scored on the power play at 11:55 of the first, moving UTA’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Sebastian Cossa saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:55 |  UTA | Mikhail SergachevPP from Dylan Guenther, Clayton Keller | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:31 | UTA | Nick Schmaltz from Clayton Keller, John Marino | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 1:30 |  CBJ | Kent Johnson from Matthew Knies | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P3 5:59 | UTA | Dylan GuentherPP from Logan Cooley, Mikhail Sergachev | 3–1 | 77% → 93% |
| P3 14:13 | UTA | Nick SchmaltzPP from Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther | 4–1 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:39 | 2 | +0.52 | +0.07 | +0.43 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 16:51 | 1 | 2 | +0.51 | +0.08 | +0.24 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Logan Cooley C | 16:48 | 2 | +0.33 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 22:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.09 | +0.42 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Clayton Keller R | 17:04 | 2 | +0.29 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jack McBain C | 14:34 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 13:03 | +0.15 | +0.17 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniil But L | 11:11 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 21:33 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 13:47 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 15:03 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:07 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 13:47 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 13:37 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 20:21 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Simashev D | 16:40 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 20:27 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 17:27 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Cossa G | 60:00 | +1.21 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Knies L | 17:44 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.02 | −0.10 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 17:14 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.22 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 15:24 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.06 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 16:28 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 9:47 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 12:43 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 11:25 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 15:23 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 9:06 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 20:31 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 16:35 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 16:53 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 13:21 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 13:43 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 16:47 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 31:43 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 12:50 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 28:07 | −0.45 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 60:00 | −1.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.