PIT beat MTL 6–5 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 2.9, PIT 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tommy Novak scored at 1:33 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jakub Dobes allowed 3.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:49 |  MTL | Cole Caufield from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:07 |  PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Kris Letang, Hendrix Lapierre | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 0:32 | PIT | Declan Carlile from Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 7:59 | PIT | Samuel Girard from Sidney Crosby, Kaedan Korczak | 1–3 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 14:01 | PIT | Tommy Novak from Egor Chinakhov, Evgeni Malkin | 1–4 | 90% → 97% |
| P2 15:32 | PIT | Ben KindelPP from Erik Karlsson, Tommy Novak | 1–5 | 98% → 100% |
| P2 18:46 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Lane Hutson, Noah Dobson | 2–5 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 3:31 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Chris Kreider | 3–5 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 18:52 | MTL | Chris KreiderPP from Nick Suzuki, Ivan Demidov | 4–5 | 0% → 4% |
| P3 19:16 | MTL | Ivan DemidovPP from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 5–5 | 4% → 49% |
| OT 1:33 | PIT | Tommy Novak from Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kreider L | 14:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.95 | −0.13 | +0.84 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cole Caufield R | 22:50 | 2 | +0.89 | +0.05 | +0.84 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:43 | 1 | 3 | +0.64 | +0.21 | +0.21 | +0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Ivan Demidov R | 16:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.10 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jayden Struble D | 16:09 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 11:24 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:12 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 13:43 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 8:32 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:31 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 26:24 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 14:36 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 23:04 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 29:06 | 3 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 9:14 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 11:40 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 12:10 | −0.24 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 15:43 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 59:04 | −3.62 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:41 | 1 | 2 | +0.76 | +0.07 | +0.36 | +0.33 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Tommy Novak C | 14:42 | 2 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.07 | +0.72 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Declan Carlile D | 20:32 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.01 | +0.40 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 21:11 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.02 | +0.21 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 19:30 | 2 | +0.32 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:53 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 19:38 | 2 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.28 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 17:39 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hallander C | 9:39 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 17:59 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 18:08 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 11:22 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Ben Kindel C | 14:18 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 13:54 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 14:49 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 11:43 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 13:35 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:26 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs G | 61:33 | −2.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.