CAR beat PHI 3–2 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Shayne Gostisbehere scored on the power play at 2:51 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Pyotr Kochetkov saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:10 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from William Carrier, Andrei Svechnikov | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 8:03 |  PHI | Owen Tippett from Trevor Zegras | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 7:20 | PHI | Matvei Michkov from Travis Konecny, Christian Dvorak | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 4:59 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Nikolaj Ehlers, Andrei Svechnikov | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| OT 2:51 | CAR | Shayne GostisbeherePP from Jackson Blake, Sebastian Aho | 3–2 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:30 | 2 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.29 | +0.59 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:50 | 2 | +0.46 | +0.35 | −0.24 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 24:47 | +0.40 | +0.33 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 12:49 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.30 | −0.16 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 15:39 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.06 | +0.25 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 18:43 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 13:38 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 11:19 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 12:01 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 10:36 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 16:35 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 22:50 | −0.10 | +0.27 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 11:44 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:16 | −0.20 | +0.20 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 14:30 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 23:17 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 24:10 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 17:10 | −0.53 | −0.14 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 62:51 | +1.45 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 14:26 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 17:47 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.18 | +0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matvei Michkov R | 16:08 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.35 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 14:29 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jamie Drysdale D | 24:33 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 22:53 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Tyson Foerster R | 18:43 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.24 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 9:13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| David Jiricek D | 13:10 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 16:08 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Carl Grundstrom R | 13:45 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Porter Martone R | 11:02 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 27:05 | −0.28 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 15:58 | −0.28 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 22:10 | −0.29 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 15:53 | −0.30 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 18:07 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Bump L | 13:27 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.25 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 62:48 | +0.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.