BUF beat CHI 4–3. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jiri Kulich scored at 13:20 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 51% to 86%. Spencer Knight allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:59 |  CHI | Ryan Donato from Alex Vlasic, Nick Lardis | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:24 | CHI | Tyler Bertuzzi from Anton Frondell, Teuvo Teravainen | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P1 16:24 |  BUF | Jack Quinn from Zach Metsa | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 5:41 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Louis Crevier, Josh Norris | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 18:18 | CHI | Oliver Moore from Anton Frondell, Alex Vlasic | 3–2 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 6:10 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Peyton Krebs, Mattias Samuelsson | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 13:20 | BUF | Jiri Kulich from Owen Power, Tage Thompson | 3–4 | 51% → 86% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Vlasic D | 22:33 | 2 | +0.34 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Frondell C | 16:06 | 2 | +0.27 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 16:18 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.10 | +0.40 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 20:37 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 9:25 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.14 | +0.37 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Oliver Moore C | 9:30 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.11 | +0.38 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 14:22 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Lardis L | 7:41 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Greene C | 15:36 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 22:58 | −0.13 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Kantserov R | 18:48 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Artyom Levshunov D | 24:40 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:55 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Del Mastro D | 15:01 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 15:09 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Korchinski D | 11:21 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 19:01 | −0.47 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 19:58 | −0.54 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 59:01 | −2.04 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiri Kulich C | 13:31 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.18 | +0.39 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.28 | +0.27 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:23 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.22 | +0.27 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 25:12 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.35 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 19:07 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.20 | +0.20 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Metsa D | 8:28 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 24:11 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Louis Crevier D | 17:08 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 13:42 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.17 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 15:31 | +0.17 | +0.29 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 17:23 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.05 | ||
| Konsta Helenius C | 14:39 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 16:32 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 8:31 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 7:20 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 18:06 | −0.11 | +0.17 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 12:02 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 19:33 | −0.24 | +0.16 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 60:00 | −1.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.