STL beat DAL 4–0. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dalibor Dvorsky scored at 13:05 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 69% to 86%. Joel Hofer saved 2.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:34 | STL | Mason McTavish from Colton Parayko, Jimmy Snuggerud | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 13:05 | STL | Dalibor Dvorsky from Philip Broberg, Pius Suter | 2–0 | 69% → 86% |
| P3 17:37 | STL | Jimmy SnuggerudEN unassisted | 3–0 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 17:52 | STL | Pius SuterEN from Connor McMichael, Joel Hofer | 4–0 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Broberg D | 23:08 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.15 | +0.02 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 14:36 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.03 | +0.22 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 13:03 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.28 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brandon Carlo D | 15:27 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 17:11 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 20:27 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Johnston L | 9:56 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 5:08 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 13:03 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Theo Lindstein D | 15:13 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Jiricek D | 16:35 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 13:48 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 18:59 | 1 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Pius Suter C | 14:25 | 1 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.22 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Dylan Holloway L | 19:21 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 22:59 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 22:38 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 13:03 | −0.61 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.31 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 60:00 | +2.77 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arttu Hyry R | 13:07 | +0.20 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.05 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 10:03 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 22:10 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.01 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 16:57 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.07 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 18:43 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 13:13 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 17:12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 15:22 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 11:19 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 16:02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 26:45 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 11:07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 12:03 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:18 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 20:59 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 19:39 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 21:49 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 14:55 | −0.48 | +0.06 | −0.40 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 58:17 | −0.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.