SJS beat FLA 4–3 in overtime. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Luca Cagnoni scored at 3:14 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:20 |  SJS | Mason Marchment unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 5:52 | SJS | Will SmithSH from Macklin Celebrini | 0–2 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 10:37 | SJS | Will SmithPP from Macklin Celebrini, Luca Cagnoni | 0–3 | 89% → 96% |
| P2 17:10 | FLA | Eetu LuostarinenPP from Lars Eller, Aaron Ekblad | 1–3 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 5:01 | FLA | Eetu Luostarinen from Dmitry Kulikov, Anton Lundell | 2–3 | 6% → 20% |
| P3 5:18 | FLA | Matthew Tkachuk from Sam Bennett | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| OT 3:14 | SJS | Luca Cagnoni from Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 16:28 | 2 | +0.96 | +0.24 | +0.69 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 22:47 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.17 | +0.29 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 21:33 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 14:57 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.01 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 6:03 | +0.13 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 17:28 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 20:43 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.23 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 20:49 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.14 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Sandis Vilmanis L | 12:19 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 9:15 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bokondji Imama L | 5:16 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 12:52 | −0.10 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 13:31 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 23:33 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:37 | −0.32 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 27:43 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 22:42 | −0.43 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 63:14 | −0.45 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Smith C | 20:09 | 2 | 1 | +1.72 | +0.36 | +1.12 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Luca Cagnoni D | 21:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.09 | +0.25 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mason Marchment L | 12:44 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.12 | +0.39 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 22:57 | 3 | +0.25 | +0.31 | −0.23 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 14:01 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 16:48 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.02 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 11:29 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.07 | ||
| Nolan Allan D | 20:44 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:35 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 19:46 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 14:09 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivar Stenberg L | 13:35 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 17:55 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 9:24 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Igor Chernyshov L | 12:13 | −0.33 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Misa C | 11:34 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 21:44 | −0.43 | −0.08 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 17:07 | −0.49 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.32 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 63:14 | −0.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.