NYR beat TBL 5–1. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mika Zibanejad scored on the power play at 5:34 of the first, moving NYR’s win probability from 54% to 69%. Igor Shesterkin saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:34 |  NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Pavel Dorofeyev, Adam Fox | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 10:51 | NYR | Pavel Dorofeyev from Oliver Bjorkstrand | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P2 1:40 | NYR | Eeli Tolvanen from Noah Laba | 0–3 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 7:59 |  TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Ilya Mikheyev, Brayden Point | 1–3 | 4% → 12% |
| P2 16:01 | NYR | Gabe Perreault from Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad | 1–4 | 90% → 98% |
| P3 17:26 | NYR | Igor ShesterkinEN unassisted | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 10:56 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.32 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 24:07 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.00 | +0.40 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 16:00 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 15:46 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 12:09 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Geekie C | 12:32 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 19:07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 19:56 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.02 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 22:38 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 10:55 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 7:39 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 8:49 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 23:40 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.02 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 17:45 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 23:41 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 24:02 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 14:54 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.32 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 14:59 | −0.41 | −0.05 | −0.32 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 55:52 | −1.49 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Perreault R | 10:46 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.00 | +0.39 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 13:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 14:18 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.00 | +0.42 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.07 | +0.21 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Adam Fox D | 19:04 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 12:25 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 15:15 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.01 | ||
| Alberts Smits D | 14:09 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 14:45 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Noah Laba C | 16:14 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.04 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 23:20 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:38 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 14:47 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 18:48 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaroslav Chmelar R | 6:18 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 20:54 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 15:33 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.32 | +0.08 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 14:12 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +2.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.