TBL beat DET 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (DET 2.7, TBL 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov scored at 0:27 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Cam Talbot allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:31 |  DET | David Perron from J.T. Compher, Ben Chiarot | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 17:05 | TBL | Conor Geekie from Oliver Bjorkstrand | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 15:53 | TBL | Erik Cernak from Ryan McDonagh, Zemgus Girgensons | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 18:03 | TBL | Jake Guentzel from Nikita Kucherov, J.J. Moser | 1–3 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 2:56 | DET | Marco Kasper from James van Riemsdyk, Justin Faulk | 2–3 | 7% → 22% |
| P3 15:16 | DET | Alex DeBrincat from Patrick Kane | 3–3 | 11% → 49% |
| OT 0:27 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Brayden Point | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Kasper C | 13:32 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.07 | +0.57 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| David Perron L | 14:48 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.04 | +0.57 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Mazur L | 12:23 | +0.22 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R | 11:27 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 12:14 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 16:41 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 17:52 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 13:33 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 25:50 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.26 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 21:17 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 18:04 | −0.16 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 13:43 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 17:26 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 17:33 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 17:43 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emmitt Finnie C | 16:56 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 17:51 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 20:28 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.24 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 60:27 | −1.16 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Cernak D | 19:42 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.05 | +0.65 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:29 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.01 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Conor Geekie C | 8:49 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.03 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 16:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Yanni Gourde C | 18:10 | +0.21 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:54 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Declan Carlile D | 20:22 | +0.11 | +0.21 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 22:10 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 13:29 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 15:00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Scott Sabourin R | 8:56 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 20:32 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 8:55 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:37 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 15:10 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 18:49 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 16:13 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 17:35 | −0.46 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:27 | −0.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.