OTT beat NYI 3–0. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 1.5 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ridly Greig scored short-handed at 13:06 of the first, moving OTT’s win probability from 46% to 64%. Linus Ullmark saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:06 |  OTT | Ridly GreigSH from Michael Amadio | 1–0 | 46% → 64% |
| P3 12:36 | OTT | Jake SandersonPP from Dylan Cozens, Tim Stützle | 2–0 | 90% → 97% |
| P3 17:29 | OTT | Michael AmadioEN from Shane Pinto, Ridly Greig | 3–0 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ridly Greig C | 22:36 | 1 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.08 | +0.79 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 |
| Jake Sanderson D | 27:38 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.05 | +0.36 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lassi Thomson D | 6:57 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 18:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Artem Zub D | 24:45 | +0.12 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 21:00 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 10:42 | +0.08 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 13:58 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 10:55 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 24:11 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 6:08 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 19:51 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 10:10 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 9:32 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:23 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 10:25 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 18:13 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 17:44 | −0.59 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:00 | +2.38 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Pelech D | 19:20 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:59 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 14:02 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 18:41 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 22:49 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 8:19 | +0.02 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 10:36 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 22:56 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 12:29 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 14:20 | −0.10 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Calum Ritchie C | 17:48 | −0.12 | +0.12 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 16:33 | −0.14 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 8:19 | −0.15 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:29 | −0.17 | +0.21 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 19:00 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Schaefer D | 24:56 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 19:40 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 12:15 | −0.38 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 56:57 | −0.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.