TBL beat BOS 2–1. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 2.2, BOS 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Emil Lilleberg scored at 18:25 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:47 | BOS | Morgan Geekie from Charlie McAvoy | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 6:37 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Gage Goncalves, Ryan McDonagh | 1–1 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 18:25 | TBL | Emil Lilleberg from Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point | 2–1 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Lilleberg D | 21:03 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.17 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 18:46 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.17 | +0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 19:20 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gage Goncalves C | 14:04 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.21 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:10 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 13:42 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 19:15 | −0.04 | +0.21 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 12:48 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:21 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 19:21 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 13:37 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 22:29 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Sabourin R | 9:33 | −0.18 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 13:58 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 21:02 | −0.19 | +0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Geekie C | 9:47 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Carlile D | 21:00 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 9:10 | −0.32 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 59:57 | +1.21 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Geekie C | 16:54 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.27 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 25:31 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 11:25 | +0.18 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:02 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 12:12 | +0.08 | +0.19 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 12:55 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 10:44 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:28 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 19:29 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 17:06 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 16:20 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 13:38 | −0.19 | +0.09 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 17:11 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 19:35 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 18:53 | −0.41 | −0.28 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 16:01 | −0.45 | +0.02 | −0.46 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 17:39 | −0.46 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 58:34 | +0.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.