MTL beat TBL 2–1. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Juraj Slafkovský scored at 18:56 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 50% to 96%. Jakub Dobes saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 6:30 |  MTL | Cole Caufield from Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 18:09 |  TBL | Darren RaddyshPP from Nikita Kucherov, Gage Goncalves | 1–1 | 7% → 50% |
| P3 18:56 | MTL | Juraj Slafkovský from Nick Suzuki | 1–2 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Raddysh D | 13:59 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.26 | +0.54 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 9:12 | +0.44 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 13:17 | +0.33 | +0.27 | −0.00 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 18:43 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Carlile D | 5:02 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 23:12 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gage Goncalves C | 18:19 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 7:38 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:25 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Pelletier L | 7:06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 14:05 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 22:47 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 21:22 | −0.34 | +0.13 | −0.09 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 10:46 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 22:05 | −0.36 | −0.33 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 20:28 | −0.42 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 20:56 | −0.45 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 26:38 | −0.64 | −0.09 | −0.44 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 58:15 | +0.85 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:25 | 2 | +0.70 | +0.26 | −0.05 | +0.29 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 17:56 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.45 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 25:39 | +0.48 | +0.29 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 21:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.27 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Lane Hutson D | 29:17 | +0.32 | +0.24 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 18:56 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 12:29 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Engstrom D | 9:12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 13:03 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 14:38 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 12:40 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 11:09 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 12:32 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 10:44 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 8:45 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 22:55 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 9:03 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 19:14 | −0.40 | +0.18 | −0.07 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 60:00 | +1.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.