BUF beat NYR 5–3. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jason Zucker scored at 7:14 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 77%. Igor Shesterkin allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:40 | BUF | Ryan McLeod from Jason Zucker, Conor Timmins | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:58 | BUF | Zach Benson from Rasmus Dahlin, Bowen Byram | 2–0 | 63% → 77% |
| P1 19:21 | NYR | Alexis LafrenièrePP from Adam Fox, J.T. Miller | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 2:57 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière from Drew Fortescue | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 14:44 | NYR | Adam FoxPP from Vincent Trocheck, Mika Zibanejad | 2–3 | 54% → 75% |
| P3 5:51 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Peyton Krebs, Tage Thompson | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 7:14 | BUF | Jason Zucker from Ryan McLeod | 4–3 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 18:45 | BUF | Zach BensonEN from Josh Doan, Josh Norris | 5–3 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Zucker L | 18:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.20 | +0.18 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Alex Tuch R | 19:05 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.04 | +0.40 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 17:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.04 | +0.41 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 24:30 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.31 | −0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 22:18 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.15 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 22:07 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Timmins D | 16:26 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 10:15 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 19:24 | +0.15 | +0.21 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 12:59 | 2 | +0.12 | −0.10 | +0.29 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 20:39 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 10:37 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 8:52 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:04 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Tyson Kozak C | 10:50 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Owen Power D | 20:09 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 13:08 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 14:46 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.17 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 60:00 | −0.89 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 15:07 | 2 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.81 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 23:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.09 | +0.42 | +0.23 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Tye Kartye L | 16:07 | +0.27 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Fortescue D | 13:34 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Sykora L | 11:16 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 18:48 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.22 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Gabe Perreault R | 12:09 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Robertson D | 15:52 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:44 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 12:28 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaroslav Chmelar R | 11:15 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Laba C | 13:33 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 12:03 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 15:24 | −0.18 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 20:51 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.24 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Braden Schneider D | 22:35 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 15:46 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 24:41 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 58:27 | −1.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.