OTT beat TBL 6–2. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Fabian Zetterlund scored at 2:45 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 52% to 78%. Jonas Johansson allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 15:46 |  OTT | Jordan Spence from Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle | 0–1 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 18:23 | TBL | Nick Paul from Corey Perry, Nikita Kucherov | 1–1 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 2:45 | OTT | Fabian Zetterlund from Brady Tkachuk, Cameron Crotty | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 4:39 | OTT | Jake Sanderson from Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk | 1–3 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 10:35 | TBL | Corey Perry from Ryan McDonagh, Nick Paul | 2–3 | 3% → 17% |
| P3 12:51 | OTT | Tim StützlePP from Dylan Cozens, Drake Batherson | 2–4 | 87% → 98% |
| P3 13:04 | OTT | Jake SandersonPP from Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson | 2–5 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 16:41 | OTT | Shane PintoEN unassisted | 2–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Perry R | 14:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.06 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Paul L | 13:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.03 | +0.57 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 19:41 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 19:43 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 18:05 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 18:22 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 20:23 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 19:55 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 20:42 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 17:33 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Dylan Duke L | 9:22 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:01 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 14:52 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Geekie C | 11:29 | −0.27 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.08 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:46 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:13 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:29 | −0.47 | −0.12 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jakob Pelletier L | 10:22 | −0.52 | −0.13 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 58:46 | −1.71 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Sanderson D | 24:08 | 2 | +1.49 | +0.14 | +1.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 9:23 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.03 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 18:31 | 1 | 2 | +0.81 | +0.27 | +0.51 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Jordan Spence D | 22:59 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.06 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lassi Thomson D | 13:10 | +0.40 | +0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 17:17 | 2 | +0.24 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cameron Crotty D | 14:50 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.22 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artem Zub D | 23:58 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 8:23 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 18:55 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 17:02 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:42 | 4 | −0.09 | +0.22 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 16:34 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 17:20 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 11:44 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 11:12 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 15:31 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:21 | 1 | −0.50 | +0.17 | −0.64 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:00 | +0.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.