TBL beat NSH 3–2. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Corey Perry scored at 6:52 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 81%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:31 | NSH | Joakim Kemell from Filip Forsberg, Justin Barron | 1–0 | 46% → 68% |
| P2 13:32 |  TBL | Jake Guentzel from Darren Raddysh, Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 4:33 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Jake Guentzel | 1–2 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 4:53 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Fedor Svechkov, Adam Wilsby | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 6:52 | TBL | Corey Perry from Jake Guentzel, Emil Lilleberg | 2–3 | 52% → 81% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joakim Kemell R | 8:16 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.15 | +0.47 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 24:29 | +0.19 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 14:48 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reid Schaefer L | 6:26 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 17:05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 14:22 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 14:55 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:17 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.08 | ||
| Adam Wilsby D | 14:57 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 16:39 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 22:46 | −0.28 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 14:24 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.50 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 14:57 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 14:05 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 13:42 | −0.41 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:16 | −0.43 | −0.22 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 27:05 | −0.53 | −0.31 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 58:54 | −0.05 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Perry R | 12:59 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.16 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:46 | 1 | 2 | +0.84 | +0.29 | +0.54 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Brandon Hagel L | 22:20 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.13 | +0.30 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Lilleberg D | 17:34 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.29 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 19:06 | +0.20 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 15:52 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 20:10 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 16:08 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 8:19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 23:51 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.21 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 11:36 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 11:54 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 17:08 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 15:29 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Scott Sabourin R | 5:54 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 20:59 | −0.27 | +0.10 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 15:49 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 18:06 | −0.31 | +0.14 | −0.48 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 60:00 | +0.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.