TBL beat OTT 4–2. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Emil Lilleberg scored at 8:51 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 82%. James Reimer allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:18 |  OTT | Dylan Cozens from Tyler Kleven, Brady Tkachuk | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:25 | OTT | Jordan Spence from Nick Cousins, Artem Zub | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P2 3:37 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Charle-Edouard D'Astous, Emil Lilleberg | 2–1 | 18% → 34% |
| P2 5:14 | TBL | Charle-Edouard D'Astous from Yanni Gourde, Zemgus Girgensons | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 8:51 | TBL | Emil Lilleberg from Brandon Hagel, Gage Goncalves | 2–3 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 17:48 | TBL | Jake Guentzel from Corey Perry, Emil Lilleberg | 2–4 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cozens C | 15:03 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.88 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 22:41 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.04 | +0.49 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 9:49 | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 15:13 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 17:03 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 24:02 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 15:19 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lassi Thomson D | 11:24 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 16:41 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 27:04 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Yakemchuk D | 13:58 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 11:13 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 11:05 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 14:53 | −0.29 | −0.13 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 18:51 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 10:47 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 21:41 | −0.64 | −0.23 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:55 | 1 | −0.65 | −0.05 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 58:18 | −1.47 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 17:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.14 | +0.84 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Hagel L | 22:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.10 | +0.54 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Emil Lilleberg D | 14:58 | 1 | 2 | +0.65 | +0.11 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jake Guentzel C | 19:25 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.01 | +0.54 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Gage Goncalves C | 20:06 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 21:48 | +0.22 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:44 | +0.11 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 16:05 | +0.06 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 19:45 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 7:11 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Santini D | 1:49 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 14:17 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Sabourin R | 5:50 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:54 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 25:32 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 18:44 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.11 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 19:31 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 14:35 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.05 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +1.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.