SEA beat TBL 4–3 in overtime. SEA lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brandon Montour scored at 2:47 of overtime, moving SEA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:18 |  SEA | Brandon Montour from Frederick Gaudreau, Oscar Fisker Molgaard | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P1 17:01 |  TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Brandon Hagel, Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P1 18:12 | SEA | Kaapo Kakko from Chandler Stephenson, Bobby McMann | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 3:35 | SEA | Bobby McMann from Kaapo Kakko, Adam Larsson | 3–1 | 66% → 82% |
| P2 5:56 | TBL | Jake Guentzel from Darren Raddysh, Charle-Edouard D'Astous | 3–2 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 10:18 | TBL | Corey PerryPP from Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov | 3–3 | 32% → 53% |
| OT 2:47 | SEA | Brandon Montour from Shane Wright, Berkly Catton | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Montour D | 23:04 | 2 | +1.28 | −0.07 | +1.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 15:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.22 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Bobby McMann C | 20:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.28 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Oscar Fisker Molgaard C | 11:46 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Shane Wright C | 10:56 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Berkly Catton C | 18:21 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cale Fleury D | 6:56 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 14:51 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Meyers C | 11:18 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 8:26 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 25:17 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 19:59 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:50 | −0.22 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 16:26 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 21:40 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 24:18 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Ryker Evans D | 15:48 | −0.35 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 20:19 | −0.37 | −0.07 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 62:47 | +0.32 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:43 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.18 | +0.68 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Corey Perry R | 7:48 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.05 | +0.66 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 19:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.04 | +0.62 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| J.J. Moser D | 21:46 | +0.16 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 18:51 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 26:45 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.25 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 21:23 | 2 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:24 | +0.10 | +0.25 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 18:54 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 17:41 | +0.07 | +0.18 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 18:22 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:14 | −0.06 | +0.16 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 8:19 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 13:37 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 9:01 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 18:48 | −0.20 | +0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 12:49 | −0.39 | +0.24 | −0.62 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 22:09 | 1 | −0.63 | +0.05 | −0.68 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 62:47 | −1.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.