TBL beat MIN 6–3. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Erik Cernak scored at 17:07 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 51% to 92%. Filip Gustavsson allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:28 | MIN | Mats ZuccarelloPP from Quinn Hughes, Matt Boldy | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 18:49 | MIN | Brock FaberPP from Vladimir Tarasenko, Bobby Brink | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 5:45 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 9:51 | MIN | Vladimir Tarasenko from Marcus Johansson, Ryan Hartman | 3–1 | 68% → 84% |
| P2 12:27 | TBL | Jake Guentzel from Darren Raddysh, Gage Goncalves | 3–2 | 15% → 31% |
| P2 15:19 | TBL | Darren RaddyshPP from Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 17:07 | TBL | Erik Cernak from Charle-Edouard D'Astous, Andrei Vasilevskiy | 3–4 | 51% → 92% |
| P3 18:42 | TBL | Brandon HagelEN from Nick Paul | 3–5 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:36 | TBL | Pontus HolmbergEN from Ryan McDonagh | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Zuccarello C | 15:48 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.15 | +0.84 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.26 | +0.84 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brock Faber D | 24:39 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.03 | +0.68 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:52 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Danila Yurov R | 11:27 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 11:07 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 13:16 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 11:43 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 19:48 | −0.14 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 11:52 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 21:15 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 14:10 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 19:52 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 21:31 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.31 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 18:13 | −0.32 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 12:24 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.07 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 10:18 | −0.36 | −0.07 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:10 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 58:16 | −1.46 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point C | 17:33 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.10 | +0.57 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 15:28 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.10 | +0.69 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 19:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.01 | +0.52 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Darren Raddysh D | 23:48 | 1 | 2 | +0.52 | −0.08 | +0.60 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 16:06 | +0.29 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 20:27 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 13:57 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 17:44 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 12:44 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Emil Lilleberg D | 19:01 | +0.06 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 8:37 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 20:26 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Sabourin R | 9:11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:49 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 15:00 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 19:26 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.14 | −0.42 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 18:49 | 1 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.12 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Gage Goncalves C | 15:31 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.07 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 59:27 | −0.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.