TBL beat EDM 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 2.4, EDM 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov scored short-handed at 16:58 of the second, moving TBL’s win probability from 66% to 87%. Connor Ingram allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:37 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Evan Bouchard | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 1:37 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 12:13 | TBL | Jake GuentzelPP from Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point | 2–1 | 48% → 69% |
| P2 16:58 | TBL | Nikita KucherovSH from J.J. Moser | 3–1 | 66% → 87% |
| P3 7:16 | EDM | Josh Samanski unassisted | 3–2 | 6% → 23% |
| P3 15:32 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Brandon Hagel | 4–2 | 88% → 99% |
| P3 19:28 | TBL | Anthony CirelliEN unassisted | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 19:53 | 2 | 2 | +1.34 | +0.11 | +1.35 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jake Guentzel C | 19:22 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.05 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 10:28 | 2 | +0.45 | +0.07 | +0.39 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 22:42 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 9:59 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 13:02 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 26:00 | +0.06 | +0.13 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 11:58 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:09 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 14:01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 14:13 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 17:54 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 22:01 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 11:00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 20:47 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 15:16 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 10:10 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 20:14 | −0.30 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +0.66 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Samanski C | 10:05 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.02 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 22:42 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.20 | +0.44 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 14:08 | +0.21 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 17:23 | +0.08 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 13:18 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 17:37 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 15:19 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 12:43 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 15:44 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Roby Jarventie L | 8:30 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 15:27 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:49 | −0.18 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 9:27 | −0.19 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 9:29 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 20:26 | −0.35 | +0.08 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 20:28 | −0.35 | −0.18 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:56 | −0.36 | −0.17 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 27:37 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.21 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 58:42 | −1.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.