NYR beat MIN 4–2. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jaroslav Chmelar scored at 8:41 of the second, moving NYR’s win probability from 68% to 84%. Igor Shesterkin saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:41 | NYR | Noah LabaPP from Gabe Perreault, Vladislav Gavrikov | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 15:00 | NYR | Vladislav Gavrikov from Tye Kartye, Adam Fox | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 0:35 | MIN | Matt BoldyPP from Quinn Hughes, Filip Gustavsson | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P2 8:41 | NYR | Jaroslav Chmelar from Taylor Raddysh, Urho Vaakanainen | 3–1 | 68% → 84% |
| P2 9:03 | NYR | Vincent Trocheck from Vladislav Gavrikov, Adam Fox | 4–1 | 84% → 95% |
| P3 7:19 | MIN | Danila Yurov from Vladimir Tarasenko, Yakov Trenin | 4–2 | 1% → 6% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Laba C | 16:29 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.05 | +0.41 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 20:46 | 1 | 2 | +0.47 | −0.13 | +0.43 | +0.34 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jaroslav Chmelar R | 6:19 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.07 | +0.26 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 9:09 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 14:37 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 10:24 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabe Perreault R | 13:46 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 16:42 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 19:15 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 20:47 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.28 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Tye Kartye L | 13:38 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 23:06 | 2 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Edstrom C | 7:33 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matthew Robertson D | 16:16 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 23:23 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:29 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 18:47 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 15:59 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +2.08 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danila Yurov R | 12:56 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.29 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 12:31 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:11 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:08 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 19:02 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.32 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.39 | −0.08 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 16:15 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 16:32 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 22:49 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.05 | +0.18 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 8:26 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 12:45 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 9:56 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 13:43 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 20:16 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:33 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 11:49 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 21:41 | −0.26 | +0.18 | −0.39 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 22:42 | −0.42 | +0.19 | −0.47 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:24 | −0.64 | +0.04 | −0.57 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 57:19 | −1.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.