BUF beat TBL 8–7. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 3.8, BUF 3.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Josh Doan scored on the power play at 15:43 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 52% to 90%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:26 | BUF | Josh DoanPP from Tage Thompson, Bowen Byram | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 2:15 | BUF | Jason ZuckerPP from Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson | 0–2 | 73% → 86% |
| P2 5:10 | BUF | Alex TuchPP from Tage Thompson, Noah Ostlund | 0–3 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 7:55 | TBL | Corey Perry from Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh | 1–3 | 4% → 12% |
| P2 11:07 | BUF | Alex TuchSH from Bowen Byram | 1–4 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 12:26 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Darren Raddysh | 2–4 | 3% → 11% |
| P2 14:46 | TBL | Zemgus Girgensons from Yanni Gourde, J.J. Moser | 3–4 | 10% → 25% |
| P2 17:37 | TBL | J.J. Moser from Conor Geekie | 4–4 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 0:59 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Brandon Hagel, J.J. Moser | 5–4 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 5:46 | TBL | Brayden Point unassisted | 6–4 | 76% → 93% |
| P3 6:12 | BUF | Sam Carrick from Zach Benson, Michael Kesselring | 6–5 | 7% → 23% |
| P3 9:48 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Anthony Cirelli, Darren Raddysh | 7–5 | 80% → 95% |
| P3 11:03 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Tage Thompson, Bowen Byram | 7–6 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 14:29 | BUF | Jason Zucker from Ryan McLeod | 7–7 | 14% → 51% |
| P3 15:43 | BUF | Josh DoanPP from Jason Zucker, Rasmus Dahlin | 7–8 | 52% → 90% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 19:15 | 2 | 1 | +1.28 | +0.08 | +1.14 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Corey Perry R | 8:54 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.03 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 17:13 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.06 | +0.69 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:48 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.06 | +0.74 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 26:17 | 1 | 2 | +0.37 | −0.20 | +0.58 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Hagel L | 16:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.58 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.58 | +0.00 |
| Scott Sabourin R | 4:17 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 14:02 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 20:07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 6:49 | −0.09 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Geekie C | 7:33 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 13:17 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 18:37 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:55 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.10 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 20:41 | −0.21 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 23:13 | 3 | −0.27 | +0.17 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 17:44 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 18:39 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.23 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 58:54 | −3.16 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch R | 18:54 | 2 | +1.62 | −0.24 | +1.26 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.58 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 18:25 | 2 | +1.35 | −0.14 | +1.48 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 16:42 | 2 | 1 | +1.30 | +0.29 | +1.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 26:16 | 1 | 2 | +1.23 | +0.11 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 |
| Sam Carrick C | 6:03 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.05 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:39 | 4 | +0.12 | +0.20 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 21:03 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Michael Kesselring D | 6:03 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 17:55 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 14:15 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 6:03 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Metsa D | 8:55 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 15:19 | −0.11 | +0.20 | −0.35 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 8:46 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 16:34 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 24:57 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 27:08 | −0.35 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 20:12 | 3 | −0.59 | +0.16 | −0.73 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 59:21 | −3.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.