TBL beat FLA 6–1. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brandon Hagel scored at 2:08 of the first, moving TBL’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Daniil Tarasov allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:08 |  TBL | Brandon Hagel from Victor Hedman | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 14:08 | TBL | Zemgus Girgensons from Pontus Holmberg, Yanni Gourde | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 1:14 | TBL | Jake GuentzelPP from Darren Raddysh, Nikita Kucherov | 0–3 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 17:50 | TBL | Erik Cernak from Ryan McDonagh, Dominic James | 0–4 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 6:09 | TBL | Pontus Holmberg from Gage Goncalves, Oliver Bjorkstrand | 0–5 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 9:50 |  FLA | Mackie SamoskevichPP from Jesper Boqvist, Anton Lundell | 1–5 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 15:41 | TBL | Oliver Bjorkstrand unassisted | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikulas Hovorka D | 11:27 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 15:01 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.09 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 22:05 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 17:10 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 12:13 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 15:18 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 11:38 | +0.05 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sandis Vilmanis L | 14:57 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 20:45 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 10:23 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Donovan Sebrango D | 12:25 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 25:58 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.43 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 20:49 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 20:47 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 13:36 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 18:42 | −0.18 | +0.11 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:02 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.46 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 13:40 | −0.68 | +0.07 | −0.41 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 13:51 | −0.80 |
| Daniil Tarasov G | 45:59 | −2.57 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:28 | 1 | +0.92 | −0.08 | +0.83 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 23:13 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.10 | +0.84 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 16:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.08 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jake Guentzel C | 17:07 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.12 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 17:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.54 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 18:20 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Finley C | 6:42 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 14:55 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 22:59 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Sabourin R | 9:23 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 14:16 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Dominic James C | 15:23 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 19:37 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Declan Carlile D | 16:42 | −0.23 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Douglas C | 6:13 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 13:15 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 17:54 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 17:52 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.08 | −0.38 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 59:56 | +2.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.