TBL beat BUF 4–3 in overtime. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jake Guentzel scored at 4:45 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:24 |  TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Jake Guentzel | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 16:53 |  BUF | Mattias Samuelsson unassisted | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P3 4:08 | BUF | Mattias Samuelsson from Ryan McLeod, Jack Quinn | 2–1 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 8:53 | TBL | Oliver BjorkstrandPP from Darren Raddysh, Nikita Kucherov | 2–2 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 14:53 | BUF | Josh DoanPP from Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin | 3–2 | 50% → 87% |
| P3 19:34 | TBL | Darren RaddyshPP from Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel | 3–3 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 4:45 | TBL | Jake Guentzel from Nikita Kucherov, J.J. Moser | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 24:01 | 2 | +1.55 | −0.21 | +1.74 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 16:29 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.17 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 17:50 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Konsta Helenius C | 13:47 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Isak Rosen R | 8:17 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 17:10 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 12:25 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 9:08 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 17:47 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Zach Metsa D | 11:12 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 22:38 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 11:01 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 23:37 | −0.26 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 14:36 | −0.35 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 21:51 | −0.36 | −0.22 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 22:09 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.19 | −0.69 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 27:47 | 1 | −0.65 | +0.08 | −0.73 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 19:31 | 1 | −0.70 | −0.20 | −0.48 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis G | 64:24 | −0.36 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Raddysh D | 25:48 | 1 | 1 | +1.23 | +0.48 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake Guentzel C | 26:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.18 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:24 | 1 | 3 | +0.77 | +0.27 | +0.43 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:04 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.14 | +0.49 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Sabourin R | 6:03 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 19:40 | +0.07 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 25:40 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.24 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 16:31 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 17:39 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 18:04 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Carlile D | 15:08 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Finley C | 7:43 | −0.09 | +0.12 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 20:01 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 23:51 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Douglas C | 5:45 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic James C | 13:02 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 13:52 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 17:07 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 63:33 | +0.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.