WSH beat CAR 4–3 in overtime. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 4.9 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Justin Sourdif scored at 1:42 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Clay Stevenson allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:27 |  CAR | Mark Jankowski from William Carrier, Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 17:51 | CAR | Sebastian Aho unassisted | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 4:16 | CAR | Shayne Gostisbehere from Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal | 3–0 | 82% → 94% |
| P2 7:52 | WSH | Hendrix Lapierre from Sonny Milano | 3–1 | 5% → 17% |
| P2 14:58 | WSH | Dylan Strome from Aliaksei Protas, Jakob Chychrun | 3–2 | 13% → 30% |
| P3 13:18 | WSH | Jakob Chychrun from Aliaksei Protas, Tom Wilson | 3–3 | 16% → 51% |
| OT 1:42 | WSH | Justin Sourdif from John Carlson, Ethen Frank | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Jankowski L | 12:42 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.10 | +0.36 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:25 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.26 | +0.37 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 15:59 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.17 | +0.39 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 11:04 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 12:26 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:00 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 15:19 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 13:14 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 13:37 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 14:58 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:16 | −0.18 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 22:10 | −0.22 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:41 | −0.26 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 23:09 | −0.28 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 22:43 | −0.35 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:48 | −0.36 | −0.19 | −0.24 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 13:54 | −0.45 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 13:41 | −1.04 | −0.45 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.58 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 61:42 | +0.92 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson D | 27:57 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.61 | −0.03 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Sourdif C | 18:40 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.55 | +0.09 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 21:48 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.13 | +0.31 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 19:15 | 2 | +0.44 | +0.19 | −0.27 | +0.35 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 8:29 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ethen Frank R | 15:47 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.28 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 6:13 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.08 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 20:50 | +0.19 | +0.36 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 28:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.17 | +0.24 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Tom Wilson R | 21:24 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.32 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 18:46 | +0.09 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 10:04 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 16:18 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 8:59 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 9:15 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 18:25 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 14:13 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Leonard R | 16:41 | −0.21 | +0.18 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Clay Stevenson G | 61:42 | −1.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.