MTL beat VGK 3–2 in overtime. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jake Evans scored at 3:58 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jakub Dobes saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:38 |  VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 4:24 |  MTL | Phillip Danault from Zachary Bolduc | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 8:55 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Noah Dobson, Mike Matheson | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 16:52 | VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev from Ben Hutton, Braeden Bowman | 2–2 | 9% → 49% |
| OT 3:58 | MTL | Jake Evans from Alexandre Texier | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 19:16 | 2 | +0.68 | +0.55 | +0.32 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 22:26 | +0.47 | +0.51 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 23:00 | +0.12 | +0.38 | −0.30 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 13:14 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Laczynski C | 7:57 | +0.08 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:06 | +0.06 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braeden Bowman R | 15:26 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 16:20 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 27:14 | −0.05 | +0.23 | −0.20 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 15:13 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 6:16 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 18:54 | −0.11 | +0.16 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 6:35 | −0.15 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 20:51 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:20 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 14:44 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:21 | −0.47 | −0.08 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 25:38 | −0.48 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 63:58 | −0.96 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Texier L | 16:45 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.09 | −0.09 | +0.26 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 15:12 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.19 | +0.38 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 20:41 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 19:42 | +0.27 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 12:12 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 19:23 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.16 | +0.24 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 19:27 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 12:34 | +0.01 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 14:05 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 24:25 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:17 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:52 | −0.24 | −0.16 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 17:54 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 21:23 | −0.33 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 17:17 | −0.33 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 25:04 | −0.48 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 11:37 | −0.53 | −0.55 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 15:16 | −0.55 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 73:42 | +2.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.