TBL beat UTA 2–0. Expected goals were close to even (UTA 3.7, TBL 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Darren Raddysh scored on the power play at 17:38 of the second, moving TBL’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 3.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 17:38 |  TBL | Darren RaddyshPP from Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel | 0–1 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 19:14 | TBL | Anthony CirelliPP from J.J. Moser, Nikita Kucherov | 0–2 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Durzi D | 20:39 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 22:14 | +0.08 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 19:56 | +0.07 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 13:23 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniil But L | 12:50 | −0.02 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 13:47 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 10:23 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 13:40 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 21:03 | −0.13 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 14:27 | −0.19 | +0.13 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:51 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 10:06 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 20:15 | −0.30 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:04 | −0.32 | +0.08 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:13 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 18:28 | −0.35 | +0.22 | −0.55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 15:28 | −0.38 | +0.14 | −0.74 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 12:55 | −0.45 | +0.15 | −0.58 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +0.88 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Raddysh D | 25:17 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.02 | +0.72 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:17 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.03 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 14:38 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Finley C | 8:14 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 25:29 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 18:20 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.13 | −0.53 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 12:44 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Carlile D | 17:24 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Groshev D | 9:57 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:07 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 12:34 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 8:41 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Max Crozier D | 19:54 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic James C | 13:14 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:33 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 16:39 | −0.34 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 15:15 | −0.34 | −0.10 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 21:46 | −0.44 | +0.05 | −0.51 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +3.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.