CBJ beat TBL 8–5. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 2.4, CBJ 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mason Marchment scored at 9:05 of the second, moving CBJ’s win probability from 53% to 74%. Jonas Johansson allowed 3.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:47 |  CBJ | Cole Sillinger from Charlie Coyle | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:48 | TBL | Jake Guentzel unassisted | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 8:37 | CBJ | Mason Marchment from Erik Gudbranson | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 10:01 | TBL | Darren RaddyshPP from Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel | 2–2 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 18:33 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Kirill Marchenko, Mason Marchment | 2–3 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:47 | CBJ | Dmitri Voronkov unassisted | 2–4 | 72% → 85% |
| P2 3:29 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli | 3–4 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 4:58 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel | 4–4 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 9:05 | CBJ | Mason Marchment from Zach Werenski, Charlie Coyle | 4–5 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 18:57 | CBJ | Charlie CoylePP from Adam Fantilli, Zach Werenski | 4–6 | 77% → 91% |
| P3 14:55 | CBJ | Sean MonahanEN unassisted | 4–7 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 18:54 | TBL | Jake GuentzelPP from Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli | 5–7 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 19:35 | CBJ | Mason MarchmentEN from Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko | 5–8 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel C | 19:03 | 2 | 1 | +1.54 | −0.10 | +1.63 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:23 | 1 | 2 | +0.86 | +0.04 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Darren Raddysh D | 27:36 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.05 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:43 | 1 | 3 | +0.77 | +0.09 | +0.61 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Simon Lundmark D | 16:45 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 18:04 | 2 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 4:59 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Pelletier L | 11:53 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic James C | 13:49 | −0.06 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 4:23 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 14:04 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 15:40 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 26:56 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:25 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 14:02 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Declan Carlile D | 21:53 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 18:26 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:58 | −0.51 | −0.08 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 57:54 | −3.17 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Marchment L | 17:23 | 3 | 1 | +1.73 | −0.02 | +1.72 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:43 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.07 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 17:26 | 1 | 2 | +0.65 | −0.04 | +0.58 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.06 |
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:13 | 1 | 2 | +0.59 | +0.03 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 13:08 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.01 | +0.56 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 26:16 | +0.09 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 11:50 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 14:26 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 13:12 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 15:58 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 13:01 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 13:04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 23:23 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 6:59 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 17:35 | 2 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 23:38 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 26:35 | 2 | −0.24 | +0.13 | −0.40 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 12:46 | −0.43 | +0.05 | −0.47 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 60:00 | −2.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.