ANA beat COL 2–1 in a shootout. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Artturi Lehkonen scored at 16:21 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 11% to 51%. Lukas Dostal saved 6.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:27 |  ANA | Jeffrey Viel from Cutter Gauthier, Radko Gudas | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P3 16:21 |  COL | Artturi Lehkonen from Brock Nelson, Brent Burns | 1–1 | 11% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Viel L | 13:42 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.01 | +0.41 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 18:54 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.06 | −0.21 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.33 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 21:05 | +0.23 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.66 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 14:34 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 14:01 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Moore D | 10:30 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 18:24 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 14:18 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 13:36 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 15:53 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 13:48 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 22:37 | −0.27 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 11:40 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 28:08 | −0.38 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 18:35 | −0.40 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 20:54 | −0.63 | −0.47 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 17:31 | −0.69 | −0.39 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 30:28 | −0.72 | −0.56 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 65:00 | +6.34 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:50 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.17 | +0.24 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 15:49 | +0.26 | +0.39 | −0.00 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 18:19 | +0.25 | +0.44 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 22:43 | +0.21 | +0.41 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gavin Brindley C | 7:25 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 21:51 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 18:12 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 31:04 | +0.01 | +0.22 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.00 | ||
| Jack Ahcan D | 11:32 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 31:20 | −0.02 | +0.30 | −0.21 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 7:05 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 22:41 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.38 | −0.32 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.32 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 12:04 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Taylor Makar L | 8:43 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 12:30 | −0.16 | +0.25 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 21:11 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 28:05 | −0.41 | +0.33 | −0.10 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 16:55 | −0.43 | +0.14 | −0.25 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 65:00 | +0.84 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.